Sea-level rise will threaten coastlines even if 1.5C climate target is met, scientists warn

Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C — the goal set by nearly 200 countries — rising seas will still pose a major threat to coastal communities for centuries, scientists say.

A new study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment warns that keeping to the 1.5°C target should not be seen as “safe,” as melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will continue far into the future.

Researchers reviewed recent studies on how ice sheets are behaving now and how they responded in the past. They found that during previous warm periods, sea levels were several metres higher than today, and current melt rates are increasing — especially in West Antarctica and Greenland.

Computer models also show that sea-level rise is unlikely to slow down, even if warming is kept below 1.5°C. Scientists warn this could push ice loss past irreversible tipping points, although the exact thresholds remain uncertain.

Around 230 million people live within one metre of today’s high tide lines. If sea-level rise hits 1 cm per year by the end of the century, experts say even wealthy countries will struggle to cope, and mass migration could follow.

Still, scientists stress that limiting warming remains vital. Every fraction of a degree avoided can slow the pace of sea-level rise and reduce long-term risks. “It’s not a reason to give up,” said lead author Prof Chris Stokes. “It’s a reason to act faster.”

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