NASA has raised the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, making it the most threatening space rock recorded in modern forecasting. While the risk is still low, experts emphasize the need for continued monitoring.
NASA has raised concerns over asteroid 2024 YR4, with the latest data indicating a 3.1% chance of it striking Earth on December 22, 2032. This makes the asteroid the most potentially hazardous space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting. While the rising probability has captured attention, experts urge the public not to panic, emphasizing that ongoing monitoring is essential to understanding the risk.
First detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide. Its brightness suggests a typical composition, rather than a rare metal-rich structure. The asteroid’s increasing risk has been tracked by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a collaborative global effort dedicated to planetary defense. The IAWN issued a memo on January 29, 2025, after the asteroid’s impact probability exceeded one percent. Since then, the chances have continued to fluctuate but have generally trended upward.
While the odds of an impact remain low, experts stress the importance of further observation. "I'm not panicking," Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the Planetary Society, told AFP. "Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added. However, he explained that as astronomers collect more data, the probability is likely to rise before dropping again.
The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe 2024 YR4 next month, providing crucial data to refine its trajectory and further assess the risk. According to NASA’s latest calculations, the asteroid has a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth, equating to odds of approximately one in 32—comparable to correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.
This potential threat brings to mind the case of asteroid Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029. However, subsequent observations ruled out the possibility. The situation with 2024 YR4 remains fluid, and astronomers continue to monitor its path closely.
Though the risk is real, experts remain confident that the probability will likely decrease over time as more data is gathered and analyzed. The global scientific community continues to prioritize planetary defense, underscoring the importance of collaboration and continued research to protect Earth from potential threats.
As monitoring continues, the focus remains on understanding the asteroid’s behavior and refining predictions. While there is no immediate cause for alarm, the situation serves as a reminder of the importance of space monitoring and the need for preparedness in the face of cosmic risks.
Officials from more than 20 oil producing countries have agreed on a roadmap aimed at strengthening international oil industry cooperation at a meetin...
Peace. Prosperity. New political forces. A technology-driven economy. Following Armenia’s parliamentary election, AnewZ took to the streets of Yerev...
As the 2026 Fifa World Cup tournament draws to a close, there’s much to anticipate and yet so much to look back at. ...
Humanity’s return to the Moon is about far more than planting flags and collecting samples. Under NASA’s Artemis programme, the goal is to establish a lasting human presence, with lunar rovers set to play a vital role in making that vision possible.
NASA has named three American astronauts and one Italian astronaut to fly on its Artemis III mission, a major orbital test planned for late next year that will evaluate lunar landing vehicles developed by SpaceX and Blue Origin.
Five astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) were instructed to take shelter and prepare for a possible evacuation on Friday after an air leak in the Russian segment of the orbital outpost worsened, according to NASA.
NASA has revealed the next phase of its plan to build a permanent base on the Moon, outlining the vehicles, robotic landers and hopping drones it intends to send as part of the project.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the reimposition of a U.S. naval blockade on all Iranian ports and warned that power plants and bridges could be targeted next week unless Tehran returns to negotiations.
The United States carried out a third consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran, targeting military capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz as Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of a blockade on Iranian shipping and proposed a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway.
The death toll from the fire at a live music pub in Bangkok has climbed to 32 after two more victims died from their injuries, according to Thailand's Police Hospital.
Ukraine and Russia exchanged fresh attacks on Tuesday, with Kyiv targeting shipping and energy infrastructure inside Russia while Moscow launched another large-scale missile and drone assault on Ukrainian cities.
The U.S. military announced that it has completed a new wave of strikes against Iranian military targets under U.S. President Donald Trump's orders. The operation targeted command centres, air defence systems, missile and drone facilities, and coastal surveillance sites across multiple locations.
Beijing is using Shanghai’s artificial intelligence (AI) forum to promote its governance agenda and showcase domestic alternatives to U.S. technology.
Australia will establish an Office of AI to coordinate artificial intelligence standards and oversee major data centres as the government prepares new laws on their energy and water use, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Wednesday (15 July).
IBM has warned that a surge in spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure is weighing on its core business, in one of the clearest signs yet of how the AI boom is reshaping the technology sector.
TikTok moderates content in more than 70 languages, including Azerbaijani, using a combination of artificial intelligence and human reviewers, a company representative has said.
China has successfully tested an experimental rocket recovery system using a net attached to an offshore platform, marking a major step in its efforts to develop reusable rockets and compete with U.S. space technology.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment