With less than a week until Poland’s decisive 1 June run-off, every new survey suggests the country is heading for its tightest presidential finish in a generation.
Liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki are now separated by statistical noise, leaving the outcome to be determined by late-breaking voters and turnout muscle.
How we got here
The 18 May first round produced no outright majority. Trzaskowski topped the field with 31.36 % of valid ballots, while Nawrocki followed on 29.54 %, according to the State Electoral Commission (PKW). Hard-right Confederation leader Sławomir Mentzen secured a surprise 14.8 %, and firebrand MP Grzegorz Braun added 6.3 %. Combined, those protest votes give the two finalists an ideologically volatile reservoir to court.
Why the race is so close
Undecideds remain unusually high. The latest IPSOS tracking poll shows roughly eight per cent of respondents still wavering.
Mentzen’s voters are split. Economic libertarians lean toward Trzaskowski’s EU-friendly tax promises, but cultural conservatives prefer Nawrocki’s hard line on migration and traditional values.
Turnout disparities matter. Urban districts exceeded 70 % participation on 18 May, while several rural counties came in below 60 %. Both campaigns have unleashed armies of volunteers to close the gap.
External headwinds. The złoty has slid four per cent this month amid fiscal-deficit jitters, sharpening voter focus on credibility with Brussels.
Why the race is so close
Undecideds remain unusually high. The latest IPSOS tracking poll shows roughly eight per cent of respondents still wavering.
Mentzen’s voters are split. Economic libertarians lean toward Trzaskowski’s EU-friendly tax promises, but cultural conservatives prefer Nawrocki’s hard line on migration and traditional values.
Turnout disparities matter. Urban districts exceeded 70 % participation on 18 May, while several rural counties came in below 60 %. Both campaigns have unleashed armies of volunteers to close the gap.
External headwinds. The złoty has slid four per cent this month amid fiscal-deficit jitters, sharpening voter focus on credibility with Brussels.
Candidate snapshots
Rafał Trzaskowski — 52, mayor of Warsaw and former MEP, pitches himself as the guarantor of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s rule-of-law reforms and wants to legalise civil partnerships.
Karol Nawrocki — 43, historian and ex-director of the Institute of National Remembrance, runs as an “independent patriot” endorsed by Law & Justice; vows to veto any “ideological” bills and raise defence spending to 4 % GDP.
What happens next
31 May, 00:00: national polling blackout begins.
1 June, 07:00–21:00: run-off voting hours.
By 02:00 CET on 2 June: preliminary PKW count expected.
6 August: winner sworn in for a five-year term.
Pakistan has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his "diplomatic role and leadership" during the recent crisis with India.
The US will host the official signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, the State Department announced Friday.
The EU Commission signed five major agreements with Africa, securing over €1.2 billion ($1.38 billion) in investments and guarantees, EU President Ursula von der Leyen announced Friday.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Friday that Türkiye is using all diplomatic means to establish stability not only in the Caucasus but throughout the region.
Seven Baltic and Nordic countries asked on Friday to ban Russian soldiers from entering the Schengen zone.
Pakistan has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his "diplomatic role and leadership" during the recent crisis with India.
The US will host the official signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, the State Department announced Friday.
The EU Commission signed five major agreements with Africa, securing over €1.2 billion ($1.38 billion) in investments and guarantees, EU President Ursula von der Leyen announced Friday.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Friday that Türkiye is using all diplomatic means to establish stability not only in the Caucasus but throughout the region.
Iranian missiles struck multiple locations across Israel and neighbouring regions early Friday morning, including a Microsoft office complex, according to emergency responders and local media reports.
Peace is no longer a dream. It is a discussion. On the streets of Baku and Yerevan, it is also a question, of trust, of foreign interests, and of who truly wants it.
A high-speed tram derailment in central Gothenburg, Sweden, has left at least eight people injured late on Thursday (19 June), after the vehicle slammed into a snack bar on Avenyn Avenue.
The 2025 G7 Leaders’ Summit was held June 15–17 in Kananaskis, Alberta, under Canada’s presidency. Prime Minister Mark Carney framed the meeting around priorities of protecting communities, energy and climate security, the digital transition, and future partnerships.
The USS Nimitz is heading to the Middle East amid tensions between Israel and Iran. The U.S. aircraft carrier has a decades-long history in the region, from the 1979 hostage crisis to modern deployments, often serving as a key asset during periods of rising friction with Iran.
US President Donald Trump said Friday that a major deal with Harvard University could be announced soon.
US President Donald Trump rejected the official assessment from his intelligence community that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon.
NATO needs to evolve to meet today’s changing world, Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Friday.
Pakistan has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his "diplomatic role and leadership" during the recent crisis with India.
The US will host the official signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, the State Department announced Friday.
Pakistan has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his "diplomatic role and leadership" during the recent crisis with India.
The US will host the official signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, the State Department announced Friday.
The EU Commission signed five major agreements with Africa, securing over €1.2 billion ($1.38 billion) in investments and guarantees, EU President Ursula von der Leyen announced Friday.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Friday that Türkiye is using all diplomatic means to establish stability not only in the Caucasus but throughout the region.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment