With less than a week until Poland’s decisive 1 June run-off, every new survey suggests the country is heading for its tightest presidential finish in a generation.
Liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki are now separated by statistical noise, leaving the outcome to be determined by late-breaking voters and turnout muscle.
How we got here
The 18 May first round produced no outright majority. Trzaskowski topped the field with 31.36 % of valid ballots, while Nawrocki followed on 29.54 %, according to the State Electoral Commission (PKW). Hard-right Confederation leader Sławomir Mentzen secured a surprise 14.8 %, and firebrand MP Grzegorz Braun added 6.3 %. Combined, those protest votes give the two finalists an ideologically volatile reservoir to court.
Why the race is so close
Undecideds remain unusually high. The latest IPSOS tracking poll shows roughly eight per cent of respondents still wavering.
Mentzen’s voters are split. Economic libertarians lean toward Trzaskowski’s EU-friendly tax promises, but cultural conservatives prefer Nawrocki’s hard line on migration and traditional values.
Turnout disparities matter. Urban districts exceeded 70 % participation on 18 May, while several rural counties came in below 60 %. Both campaigns have unleashed armies of volunteers to close the gap.
External headwinds. The złoty has slid four per cent this month amid fiscal-deficit jitters, sharpening voter focus on credibility with Brussels.
Why the race is so close
Undecideds remain unusually high. The latest IPSOS tracking poll shows roughly eight per cent of respondents still wavering.
Mentzen’s voters are split. Economic libertarians lean toward Trzaskowski’s EU-friendly tax promises, but cultural conservatives prefer Nawrocki’s hard line on migration and traditional values.
Turnout disparities matter. Urban districts exceeded 70 % participation on 18 May, while several rural counties came in below 60 %. Both campaigns have unleashed armies of volunteers to close the gap.
External headwinds. The złoty has slid four per cent this month amid fiscal-deficit jitters, sharpening voter focus on credibility with Brussels.
Candidate snapshots
Rafał Trzaskowski — 52, mayor of Warsaw and former MEP, pitches himself as the guarantor of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s rule-of-law reforms and wants to legalise civil partnerships.
Karol Nawrocki — 43, historian and ex-director of the Institute of National Remembrance, runs as an “independent patriot” endorsed by Law & Justice; vows to veto any “ideological” bills and raise defence spending to 4 % GDP.
What happens next
31 May, 00:00: national polling blackout begins.
1 June, 07:00–21:00: run-off voting hours.
By 02:00 CET on 2 June: preliminary PKW count expected.
6 August: winner sworn in for a five-year term.
US producer prices rose 2.6% annually in May, matching market expectations, with a modest 0.1% increase from April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Within the framework of the international event on energy efficiency held in Brussels, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy, Parviz Shahbazov, met with the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.
Tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are nearing a critical point as President Trump warns that an Israeli strike on Iran "could very well happen," while still expressing hopes for a peaceful resolution over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Türkiye and Azerbaijan are deepening defense ties with two major joint military drills in Nakhchivan this June, aiming to strengthen strategic cooperation and regional readiness.
European foreign ministers agreed to increase pressure on Russia by imposing new sanctions targeting its energy and banking sectors amid ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Within the framework of the international event on energy efficiency held in Brussels, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy, Parviz Shahbazov, met with the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.
US producer prices rose 2.6% annually in May, matching market expectations, with a modest 0.1% increase from April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are nearing a critical point as President Trump warns that an Israeli strike on Iran "could very well happen," while still expressing hopes for a peaceful resolution over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Türkiye and Azerbaijan are deepening defense ties with two major joint military drills in Nakhchivan this June, aiming to strengthen strategic cooperation and regional readiness.
European foreign ministers agreed to increase pressure on Russia by imposing new sanctions targeting its energy and banking sectors amid ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief: here are the top news stories for June 8th, covering the latest developments you need to know.
Presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay is in critical condition after being shot three times — including twice in the head — during a campaign event in Bogotá.
A 30-year-old woman was shot by police in Munich on Saturday evening after stabbing two people at Theresienwiese, a central park best known for hosting Oktoberfest.
Kazakhstan and the UK are strengthening defense ties with a new Military Cooperation Plan, focusing on peacekeeping and military education.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has condemned U.S. immigration raids and National Guard deployment in Los Angeles, calling for reforms instead of enforcement.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has openly expressed her opposition to labeling migrant workers as criminals during a high-level meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau.
Tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are nearing a critical point as President Trump warns that an Israeli strike on Iran "could very well happen," while still expressing hopes for a peaceful resolution over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Türkiye and Azerbaijan are deepening defense ties with two major joint military drills in Nakhchivan this June, aiming to strengthen strategic cooperation and regional readiness.
European foreign ministers agreed to increase pressure on Russia by imposing new sanctions targeting its energy and banking sectors amid ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
As G7 leaders prepare to meet, most member states are ready to cut the Russian oil price cap to $45 even without U.S. backing.
Within the framework of the international event on energy efficiency held in Brussels, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy, Parviz Shahbazov, met with the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.
US producer prices rose 2.6% annually in May, matching market expectations, with a modest 0.1% increase from April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are nearing a critical point as President Trump warns that an Israeli strike on Iran "could very well happen," while still expressing hopes for a peaceful resolution over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Türkiye and Azerbaijan are deepening defense ties with two major joint military drills in Nakhchivan this June, aiming to strengthen strategic cooperation and regional readiness.
European foreign ministers agreed to increase pressure on Russia by imposing new sanctions targeting its energy and banking sectors amid ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment