Ireland is set to hold a highly contested general election on Friday, with the ruling centre-right coalition facing a surge from the left-leaning Sinn Féin.

Opinion polls indicate a three-way deadlock, with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin all commanding around 20% of voter support, making for an unpredictable outcome. The election follows a swift three-week campaign focused on the country’s housing crisis, rising living costs, and immigration.

Fine Gael, led by Taoiseach Simon Harris, has centred its campaign on maintaining economic stability. Fianna Fáil, under former Prime Minister Micheál Martin, has emphasised its track record in governance while pledging housing reforms and support for struggling households.

Sinn Féin, traditionally linked to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), is led by Mary Lou McDonald, who is pushing for a transformative agenda. McDonald has called for "change" and signalled her readiness to form a left-wing coalition with progressive groups such as the Social Democrats, Labour, and People Before Profit.

“I’m asking people to come out and vote, not just for Sinn Féin but to change the government,” McDonald said earlier this week.

Ireland’s proportional representation system, which allows voters to rank candidates by preference, is expected to play a crucial role, with second-choice votes potentially decisive in securing seats. Sinn Féin has encouraged tactical voting among progressives to maximise their representation in the Dáil Éireann, Ireland’s parliament. A majority in the Dáil requires 88 seats, and Sinn Féin is aiming to increase its support significantly from the 24.5% it secured in the 2020 election.

In 2020, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael garnered 22.2% and 20.9% of the vote, respectively, with no party winning an outright majority. Coalitions have been the norm in Irish politics for decades, and the 2024 election is expected to follow this pattern.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out forming a government with Sinn Féin, further raising the likelihood that independents — polling at around 20% — could play a kingmaker role, as they have in past elections. The Green Party, a junior partner in the outgoing coalition, is expected to lose some of its 12 seats but remains open to joining a new government.

Smaller parties, such as Labour and the Social Democrats, each holding six seats, are positioning themselves to influence coalition talks following the election.

The election takes place amid growing international uncertainty. Fine Gael has warned that a Sinn Féin-led government could pose economic risks, particularly as the second term of US President-elect Donald Trump begins in January. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on EU exports to the US, a move that could significantly affect Ireland’s open economy.

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