As Portugal heads to the polls on Sunday for its third general election in just over three years, the country braces for another fragmented parliament. Opinion polls suggest no party is likely to secure an outright majority.

Portugal is once again approaching a key political moment as voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament. This will be the country’s third general election since 2022 and could lead to the formation of another minority government.

At the center of the race is the Democratic Alliance (AD), led by caretaker Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, whose Social Democratic Party (PSD) governs in coalition with the conservative CDS-PP. Montenegro, 52, is seeking a renewed mandate after his minority government lost a parliamentary confidence vote earlier this year over questions about his family's business dealings. He has denied any wrongdoing, and recent polling suggests his popularity remains strong. The AD continues to champion middle-class tax cuts, immigration controls, and solutions to the country’s worsening housing crisis.

The Socialist Party (PS), the other dominant force in Portuguese politics, is led by Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist and former minister. Santos took over the PS in late 2023 following the resignation of former Prime Minister António Costa amid an ongoing investigation into investment project management - though no charges have been filed. The PS, while critical of Montenegro’s leadership, has also shown a willingness to cooperate in the past, enabling the AD’s 2023 budget before voting to topple the government earlier this year.

Both AD and PS, despite their ideological differences, have historically focused on fiscal discipline and reducing national debt - stances praised by the EU and global markets alike.

The rise of Chega ("Enough"), led by populist André Ventura, remains one of the most significant political shifts in recent years. Founded in 2019, the anti-establishment party has surged into third place, with 50 seats won in 2024. Its platform centers on hardline immigration policies, tough-on-crime proposals, and fierce criticism of the political status quo. While polling has plateaued around 18%, Chega remains a potential kingmaker. However, Montenegro has repeatedly ruled out any coalition with Ventura’s party, maintaining a firm "no means no" stance.

Smaller parties are also expected to influence the post-election landscape:

- The Liberal Initiative, a pro-business party polling at around 6%, could join a center-right coalition but would not offer enough support to ensure a stable majority.

- Livre, a progressive party polling ahead of its leftist peers, may gain additional seats after a strong showing in 2024.

- The Communist Party and Left Bloc, once major voices on the left, are projected to continue their decline, polling at 3% or less.

- The PAN (People, Animals, Nature) party may again secure just one seat.

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