Some think tanks anticipate further deterioration in U.S.- China relations since the election

Analysts say that when U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump takes office in January, tension areas are expected in trade, technology and geopolitical conflicts.

After Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, experts from various think tanks anticipate a further deterioration in U.S.-China relations, continuing the hardline stance from his previous administration. Analysts highlight several key areas where tensions are expected to rise, with a focus on trade, technology, and geopolitical conflicts.

According to experts at Chatham House, London, Trump's return could lead to a resumption of the aggressive trade policies that characterized his first term, including high tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump's administration may push for stricter measures aimed at decoupling the U.S. economy from China's, particularly in critical sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals. This aligns with Trump's previous rhetoric of bringing manufacturing back to America and reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains.

Analysts from the Hudson Institute and other think tanks predict an increase in military posturing, especially around Taiwan. During his campaign, Trump hinted at reducing U.S. security commitments in East Asia unless allies contribute more to their defense. This shift could embolden China to take a more assertive stance on Taiwan, potentially increasing the risk of a military conflict in the region.

Trump's potential pivot from Biden's explicit support for Taiwan could lead to a strategic ambiguity similar to his earlier stance, which would create uncertainty in the region and could destabilize the delicate balance of power in the South China Sea.

The technology war between the U.S. and China is likely to intensify under a renewed Trump administration. Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlight that Trump has previously targeted Chinese tech giants like Huawei and TikTok, and his return could bring about even stricter controls on technology transfers and data security.

China's government, anticipating a tougher U.S. stance, is reportedly preparing policies to reduce dependence on American technology, focusing on self-reliance in semiconductors, AI, and cybersecurity measures. This suggests a deepening of the technological divide between the two superpowers.

Think tanks such as the Brookings Institution note that Trump's “America First” foreign policy could reshape alliances, potentially weakening the collective Western response to China's rise. However, Trump's hardline approach may push U.S. allies in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, to strengthen their own defenses against China's regional ambitions. Conversely, China's strategy under Xi Jinping is expected to focus on strengthening its global partnerships, especially through initiatives like the Belt and Road. Beijing might leverage Trump's unpredictable policies to position itself as a more stable global partner to other nations, especially in Europe and the Global South.

Think tank experts agree that Trump's return to the presidency will likely exacerbate U.S.-China tensions, particularly in the areas of trade, technology, and military strategy. This renewed rivalry is expected to influence global geopolitics, prompting both countries to bolster their alliances and prepare for a prolonged period of strategic competition.

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