Brazilians head to polls in high-stakes, polarised election

Brazilians are voting on Sunday (04 October) in the first round of a closely contested general election, following a campaign shaped by corruption scandals, economic concerns and accusations of foreign interference.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is attempting to return his father's right-wing political movement to power.

Opinion polls suggest Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are running roughly level in a potential second-round contest. If no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of valid votes in the first round, the two leading candidates will face each other in a run-off on 25 October.

Former state governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema are among the other candidates, but have struggled to gain significant support in an electorate dominated by the two frontrunners.

Deeply divided electorate

The campaign has been marked by strong rejection rates for both Lula and Bolsonaro, with polls indicating that roughly half of voters hold negative views of each candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro has promised to seek an amnesty for his father, who is serving a sentence of more than 27 years for plotting a coup following his narrow defeat in the 2022 presidential election.

Lula, meanwhile, has framed the vote as a choice between what he describes as democracy and political denialism, while repeatedly warning of attempts by foreign powers to influence the election.

Despite growing concerns over Brazil's finances and sluggish economic growth, policy debate has remained limited during the campaign, with both leading candidates skipping major televised debates.

Trump factor

Relations with the United States have emerged as one of the most sensitive issues in the campaign.

U.S. President Donald Trump strongly criticised the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, describing the case as a “witch hunt”. In 2025, his administration imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian goods, explicitly linking the measure to the former president's trial.

Washington introduced further tariffs this year over what it described as unfair trade practices. Lula has accused the Trump administration of seeking to influence the election and has portrayed the Bolsonaro family as placing closer ties with Washington above Brazil's national interests.

Trump has not formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, although he has hosted the senator at the White House and publicly praised him.

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged closer relations with both the United States and Israel. He has also backed Washington's designation of Brazil's major criminal gangs as terrorist organisations, a move rejected by Lula's government.

Brazil's large reserves of critical minerals have also become part of the wider geopolitical debate, as the United States seeks to reduce its dependence on China for strategically important materials.

• U.S., Australia close diplomatic facilities in Brazil ahead of election

Economic concerns weigh on voters

The economy remains another major issue for voters.

Although unemployment and inequality have fallen, Lula has faced criticism over high living costs, household debt and public concern about crime and the growing influence of criminal gangs.

Flávio Bolsonaro has sought to make cost-of-living pressures a central part of his campaign. Lula, meanwhile, has expanded welfare measures, proposed new debt-relief programmes for families and moved to ban online gambling.

Brazil's public debt has risen above 82 per cent of gross domestic product, adding to concerns over government spending. Authorities have lowered growth forecasts to 2.0 per cent for this year and 2.3 per cent for next year.

Goldman Sachs chief Latin America economist Alberto Ramos said the two candidates would likely pursue sharply different economic policies, with Lula expected to maintain a more state-led approach and Bolsonaro likely to favour spending cuts, privatisations and a stronger fiscal framework.

Corruption scandals dominate campaign

The election campaign has also been overshadowed by a corruption scandal linked to the now-defunct Banco Master.

Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of involvement in a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme.

The investigation has examined his links with several major political and judicial figures, including Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Bolsonaro.

Federal police are investigating the senator over alleged money laundering connected to the case. He denies wrongdoing, although he has acknowledged raising millions of dollars from Vorcaro to finance a film about his father.

Moraes, who played a central role in the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro, has said allegations involving him are politically and electorally motivated.

Lula has also sought to distance himself from a separate federal police investigation involving his son over alleged influence peddling. His son denies the allegations.

Congress also at stake

Sunday's election will determine far more than the presidency.

Voters are also choosing all 513 members of the lower house and two-thirds of the Senate.

The congressional races are particularly significant as lawmakers have gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the 2016 impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff, a close Lula ally.

Some senators have also pushed for the impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Moraes, adding another layer of political tension to an already highly polarised election.

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News Brazil elections Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Flavio Bolsonaro