Hopes for a Ukraine ceasefire have buoyed bond prices, but investors remain sceptical that Friday’s Trump–Putin summit will yield major breakthroughs.
Investors have tempered expectations of a significant diplomatic advance in the Ukraine conflict as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin prepare to meet in Alaska on Friday. Despite initial optimism, Ukraine's government bonds remain deeply distressed, trading around 55 cents on the dollar.
The summit, due to begin at 11 a.m. Alaska time (1900 GMT), is expected to be a preliminary discussion. President Trump has described it as a “listening exercise,” while warning of “severe consequences” if talks fail. He has also floated the possibility of involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a future round.
Analysts say investors are increasingly wary of over-interpreting signals. “The bar is pretty high for any meaningful progress,” said Kathryn Exum of Gramercy, noting that recent gains in Ukrainian debt reflect hopes for a symbolic truce, not a lasting settlement.
Diliana Deltcheva, head of emerging market debt at Robeco, said EU leaders’ calls with Trump earlier this week had been a “modest positive,” but she warned that the summit is unlikely to deliver substantive results. “We had a small overweight [in Ukraine bonds] but now we have neutralised it,” she added.
The International Monetary Fund and others estimate that Ukraine may require further debt restructuring to meet its financing needs, following a $20 billion rework in 2024.
U.S. bank JPMorgan said chances of a peace deal this year remained “insignificant” and warned that even a full ceasefire is unlikely. Still, geopolitical strategist Christopher Granville of TS Lombard suggested Friday’s talks could mark “the definitive start of the concluding phase of the Ukraine war.”
Ukraine’s bonds edged slightly higher on Friday, remaining just below five-month highs. Meanwhile, oil and gas prices have declined in recent weeks on hopes that a ceasefire might ease secondary sanctions and allow resumed Arctic drilling by the U.S. and Russia.
Some investors remain cautious following Trump’s volatile stance on Ukraine. His clash with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February, during which he referred to the Ukrainian leader as a “dictator,” was described by Robeco’s Deltcheva as “traumatising” for assumptions about U.S. policy direction.
If Friday’s talks exceed expectations, Deltcheva said, “then we will probably have to react.” JPMorgan analysts also forecast that currencies such as the Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, and Czech koruna could rise up to 4% if a ceasefire is reached—or fall 1% if the summit fails.
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Ukraine has warned that delays in Western military and financial aid risk giving Russia time to strengthen its positions, with officials citing past pauses in support that led to territorial losses and heavier casualties.
The South Korean government has voiced “deep disappointment and regret” over visits by Japanese officials to a controversial war shrine in Tokyo, urging that any improvement in bilateral ties must be grounded in Japan’s willingness to confront its wartime past, the foreign ministry said on Friday.
Nesting dolls and T-shirts showing Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are selling fast in Moscow souvenir shops ahead of the leaders’ first meeting since Trump’s return to office, scheduled for Friday in Alaska.
China has called on Cambodia and Thailand to step up efforts to bring about the swift restoration of peace along their shared border, according to a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry released on Friday.
The world’s biggest dance music festival faces an unexpected setback as a fire destroys its main stage, prompting a last-minute response from organisers determined to keep the party alive in Boom, Belgium.
A powerful eruption at Japan’s Shinmoedake volcano sent an ash plume more than 3,000 metres high on Sunday morning, prompting safety warnings from authorities.
According to the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), a magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck the Oaxaca region of Mexico on Saturday.
A resumption of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports is not expected in the near term, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday, despite an announcement by Iraq’s federal government a day earlier stating that shipments would resume immediately.
A magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck 56 kilometres east of Gorgan in northern Iran early Sunday morning, according to preliminary seismic data.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not negotiate on Ukraine’s behalf during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, stressing that Kyiv must decide whether to pursue any territorial swaps with Moscow.
King Charles III of Great Britain and Queen Camilla attended the 80th anniversary commemoration VJ Day in Britain on Friday.
Ukraine has warned that delays in Western military and financial aid risk giving Russia time to strengthen its positions, with officials citing past pauses in support that led to territorial losses and heavier casualties.
Kabul’s streets were lined with white flags and decorated banners on Friday as Afghanistan marked the fourth anniversary of the Taliban’s return to power on 15 August 2021.
The Trump administration is considering a refugee cap of around 40,000 for the coming year, with the majority of spots reportedly allocated to white South Africans, signaling a significant shift in U.S. refugee policy.
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