China has expanded its nuclear arsenal at the fastest rate of any nation, reaching an estimated 600 warheads by early 2025, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The institute’s annual yearbook, released Monday, warns that the world is entering a “dangerous new nuclear arms race” as global arms control frameworks continue to erode.

SIPRI reports that China has increased its warhead count by roughly 100 annually since 2023. By January, Beijing had completed or was nearing completion of approximately 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. If this pace continues, China could possess at least as many ICBMs as the U.S. or Russia by 2030.

Despite this growth, SIPRI notes that even if China’s arsenal reaches 1,500 warheads by 2035, it would still represent only about one-third of the current U.S. and Russian stockpiles.

China defends nuclear posture

Responding to the report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Beijing maintains a nuclear strategy “focused on self-defense,” reiterating China’s long-standing no-first-use policy.

“China always keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security and never engages in an arms race,” Guo told a live-streamed news briefing. He added that China is the only recognized nuclear state to publicly adopt a no-first-use stance and pledged continued commitment to global peace and stability.

Global nuclear modernization continues

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 also highlights that all nine nuclear-armed countries — the U.S., Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — continued to modernize and expand their arsenals in 2024.

While the total global stockpile fell slightly to 12,241 warheads, the report warns of a troubling trend toward renewed competition in nuclear weapons development.

Russia retains the world’s largest arsenal with 5,459 warheads, followed by the U.S. with 5,177. Together, they hold about 90% of the global total.

South Asia: slow but steady nuclear growth

India and Pakistan both expanded their nuclear capabilities in 2024. India increased its arsenal to an estimated 180 warheads from 172 the previous year and continued to develop new nuclear delivery systems. Pakistan’s arsenal is estimated to remain steady at 170 warheads, although it is actively developing delivery platforms and accumulating fissile material that could support future growth.

A brief armed confrontation between India and Pakistan in May underscored the ongoing risk of nuclear escalation in South Asia.

North Korea and Israel developments

North Korea’s arsenal remained at approximately 50 warheads, though SIPRI estimates it has enough fissile material to produce 40 additional warheads. Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge its nuclear weapons, is believed to have 90 warheads and to be upgrading its capabilities, including recent tests of missile propulsion systems and renovations at its Dimona plutonium site.

As global powers modernize and expand their arsenals, arms control advocates warn that the weakening of treaties and oversight mechanisms—combined with rising geopolitical tensions—may be ushering in a new and more unpredictable era of nuclear competition.

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