U.S. small-business confidence reached its highest level in nearly 3-1/2 years in November, driven by post-election euphoria. According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the Small Business Optimism Index surged as owners became more optimistic about the economy and expansion
U.S. small-business confidence surged to its highest level in nearly 3-1/2 years in November, buoyed by post-election optimism. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index jumped by 8.0 points to 101.7 last month, the highest since June 2021. Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential race and his Republican Party’s control of the U.S. Congress in the recent elections were expected to boost confidence among small business owners, who traditionally lean Republican. Other sentiment surveys, including the University of Michigan’s, have also seen improvements in the aftermath of the November 5 election, albeit divided along party lines.
The proportion of small business owners expecting the economy to improve surged by 41 points to 36%, the largest increase since June 2020. The number saying now is a good time to expand their business reached levels last seen nearly 3-1/2 years ago. More businesses anticipated higher sales growth, while the share of those naming inflation as their main concern fell.
The survey’s uncertainty index dropped by 12 points from a record high of 110 in October. Labor remains tight in small businesses, especially in sectors like transportation, construction, and professional services. The proportion of businesses planning to hire more workers increased by 3 points to 18%, the highest in a year. Around 32% of owners reported raising compensation, up one point from October. The share planning to increase pay over the next three months jumped 5 points to 28%, the highest level this year. About 28% planned price hikes, up 2 points from October.
"Wage hikes are essential to maintaining current employment levels and helping to fill vacancies," said Bill Dunkelberg, the chief economist at the NFIB.
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