France faces political turmoil amid no-confidence vote against PM Barnier

France faces a deepening political crisis as far-right and left-wing parties unite to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier through a no-confidence vote, threatening the stability of Europe’s second-largest economy and raising uncertainty over the nation’s crucial budget approval.

The French government is almost certain to collapse later this week, as far-right and left-wing parties submitted no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Monday.

Investors swiftly penalised French assets as the latest developments plunged the euro zone’s second-largest economy into deeper political turmoil, raising serious doubts about whether the annual budget will pass. "The French have had enough," said National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen to reporters in parliament. She accused Barnier, who became prime minister only in early September, of worsening the situation and declared him unfit to lead. "We are proposing a motion of no confidence against the government," she added.

Unless there is an unexpected last-minute development, Barnier’s fragile coalition is poised to become the first French government ousted by a no-confidence vote since 1962. A government collapse would leave a vacuum at the heart of Europe, especially with Germany also in election mode and weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Combined, RN lawmakers and the left have enough votes to unseat Barnier. Le Pen confirmed her party would back the left-wing coalition’s no-confidence motion in addition to their own. The vote is expected to take place on Wednesday.

BLAME GAME

Barnier urged lawmakers to reject the no-confidence vote.

“We are at a moment of truth... The French will not forgive us for prioritising personal interests over the future of the country,” he said, addressing the divided parliament formed after an inconclusive snap election called by President Macron in June.

Barnier’s minority government had depended on RN support to survive. However, the budget bill, designed to curb France’s spiralling public deficit with €60 billion (£52 billion) in tax rises and spending cuts, severed that fragile alliance.

Both Barnier’s camp and Le Pen’s entourage blamed one another, insisting they had made every effort to reach an agreement and had been open to dialogue.

A source close to Barnier claimed the prime minister had made significant concessions to Le Pen, suggesting that a vote to topple the government would negate those gains. “Is she prepared to sacrifice all the wins she secured?” the source asked Reuters.

If the no-confidence vote succeeds, Barnier would be forced to tender his resignation. However, Macron might ask him and his government to remain in a caretaker capacity to manage day-to-day operations while a new prime minister is sought—a process that may not conclude until next year.

One option for Macron could be to appoint a technocratic government without a political programme, potentially allowing it to survive a no-confidence vote. In any event, no new snap parliamentary elections can take place before July.

Regarding the budget, if parliament fails to adopt it by 20 December, the caretaker government could invoke constitutional powers to pass it by ordinance. However, this approach is fraught with risk, as there is legal ambiguity around whether a caretaker government can exercise such powers, and it would likely provoke a strong backlash from the opposition.

A more probable course of action would involve the caretaker government proposing emergency legislation to extend current spending limits and tax measures into next year. However, this would mean abandoning Barnier’s planned savings measures.

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