The contenders for the papacy: who could succeed Pope Francis?

As the world mourns Pope Francis, attention turns to the cardinals known as papabili — those considered possible successors. From Europe to Africa, here are the key names being discussed ahead of the next conclave.

The death of Pope Francis has drawn attention to the College of Cardinals, which will gather behind closed doors for a conclave to elect the next leader of the Catholic Church. Though the outcome of a conclave is famously unpredictable, several names have emerged as papabili — cardinals seen as having the qualities to become pope.

Jean-Marc Aveline | France | Archbishop of Marseille | 66
Aveline was born in French Algeria to a family of Spanish origin. A trusted ally of Pope Francis, he hosted the Mediterranean meeting of bishops and civic leaders in 2023, where the Pope denounced the "fanaticism of indifference" towards migrants. Known for his warm personality, his limited command of Italian could be a drawback. He would be the first French pope since the 14th century.

Matteo Zuppi | Italy | Archbishop of Bologna | 68
Zuppi is a highly influential figure in the Italian Church and a leading progressive voice, closely aligned with Pope Francis’ approach. Formerly a peace mediator for the Sant’Egidio community, he played a role in ending Mozambique’s civil war. Appointed head of the Italian bishops’ conference in 2022, he has recently been involved in Vatican peace efforts in Ukraine. His experience and pastoral focus make him a strong candidate.

Pietro Parolin | Italy | Vatican Secretary of State | 69
Often described as a favourite, Parolin is one of the most experienced Vatican diplomats, having served as Secretary of State since 2013. He has been deeply involved in the Vatican’s international affairs, including a controversial agreement with China on the appointment of bishops. His moderate stance and administrative background make him a steady, though less charismatic, option.

Filoni Fernando | Italy | Grand Master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulchre | 78
A former Vatican diplomat and prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples, Filoni was made a cardinal by Benedict XVI. He would represent a more conservative choice and has significant experience in missionary work and diplomacy.

Luis Antonio Tagle | Philippines | Vatican Pro-Prefect for Evangelisation | 67
Tagle has long been considered a papal contender. Known for his charisma and media-friendly style, he shares Pope Francis’ emphasis on humility and social justice. As a key figure in the global south and head of the Vatican’s missionary department, his election would be a historic moment for Asia and for non-European Catholicism.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | Democratic Republic of Congo | Archbishop of Kinshasa | 64
Ambongo is an outspoken advocate for social justice and the environment in Africa. A close ally of Pope Francis, he has taken strong stances on political and ecological issues in the Congo. His leadership during crises has earned him respect within the African Church and beyond.

Christoph Schönborn | Austria | Archbishop of Vienna | 79
A prominent theologian and pupil of Joseph Ratzinger (Pope Benedict XVI), Schönborn played a key role in drafting the Catechism of the Catholic Church. Though respected for his scholarship and bridge-building, his age may work against him, as the Church looks towards younger leadership.

Robert Sarah | Guinea | Former Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship | 79
Sarah represents a traditionalist, conservative wing of the Church. Known for his emphasis on liturgical discipline and outspoken criticism of Western secularism, he was a vocal figure during the Francis papacy. His election would signify a sharp change in direction.

Blase Cupich | United States | Archbishop of Chicago | 75
Cupich is one of the most prominent American cardinals and a key ally of Pope Francis. Known for his progressive views on social issues and his role in addressing clerical abuse, he has been a significant figure in the US Church’s recent history.

Marc Ouellet | Canada | Former Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops | 80
Ouellet is a respected theologian and Vatican insider. He served as head of the Congregation for Bishops, overseeing episcopal appointments worldwide. A conservative with international experience, his age might make him a less likely choice.

Mauro Gambetti | Italy | Archpriest of St Peter’s Basilica | 58
Gambetti is one of the youngest cardinals in the College. A former head of the Sacred Convent of Assisi, he was elevated by Pope Francis and given responsibility for the Vatican’s most iconic church. His pastoral focus and ties to Francis’ vision could position him as a surprise candidate.

Though tradition and geopolitics influence expectations, the conclave has often delivered unexpected results. Many front-runners in past elections have been overlooked in favour of lesser-known figures who emerge as compromise candidates. The future direction of the Church, its social teachings, and global influence could be shaped by whoever emerges as the next pope.

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