Virgin Trains cleared to challenge Eurostar on Channel Tunnel routes

Virgin Trains has moved a step closer to challenging Eurostar’s three-decade dominance of Channel Tunnel passenger rail, potentially giving travellers more choice between the UK and mainland Europe.

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) has approved Virgin’s application to operate up to 20 daily return services from London St Pancras to Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam.

The proposed services are due to begin in October 2030. Virgin still needs to secure access to the Channel Tunnel and railway networks in mainland Europe, as well as complete safety and regulatory approvals in the UK and European Union.

If those hurdles are cleared, the company would become the first new passenger rail operator to use the Channel Tunnel since Eurostar began services in 1994.

Virgin says it plans to invest around £700 million ($949 million) in the project and create about 400 jobs.

Its trains would operate from London St Pancras to the same three major European destinations currently served by Eurostar.

The company has already secured access to Eurostar’s Temple Mills depot in east London, which is accessible from High Speed 1, the railway linking St Pancras with the Channel Tunnel.

Eurostar’s three-decade dominance

Since the Channel Tunnel opened, Eurostar has been the only international passenger train operator using the tunnel.

Its dominance remains substantial even when competition from airlines is taken into account.

In 2025, Eurostar carried an estimated 7.63 million passengers between London and Paris, giving it around 77 per cent of the combined rail-and-air market on that route.

For routes from London to Brussels and Amsterdam, Eurostar carried around 4.18 million passengers, representing about 51 per cent of the combined rail-and-air market.

Across the two groups of routes, Eurostar’s share was about 65 per cent in 2025, up from 63 per cent in 2024. These figures are estimates based on combined rail and air passenger data.

The company carried around 20 million passengers across its wider network in 2025, an increase of 3 per cent on the previous year.

London-Amsterdam was one of its fastest-growing routes, with passenger numbers up 18.3 per cent, while London-Paris grew by 5 per cent.

Eurostar has set a target of carrying 30 million passengers a year by 2030.

Could competition push fares down?

The argument for greater competition is not simply that Eurostar tickets have become steadily more expensive.

Eurostar says average fares on its established London-Paris and London-Brussels routes fell in real terms between 2019 and 2024, with average prices in 2024 also below the peaks recorded in 2022 and 2023. The figures come from Eurostar’s own submission to the ORR.

But passengers can still face a significant difference between the cheapest fares advertised and the price available for a particular journey.

Eurostar currently advertises Standard tickets from £39 (about $53) one way between London and Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam, although the fare is subject to availability and based on a return booking.

Prices can be considerably higher when demand is strong or when tickets are booked close to departure.

In 2025, The Independent reported that a London-Paris ticket bought a day before travel for a Friday could cost £235 (about $319) one way.

For passengers, the issue is therefore less whether Eurostar fares have risen continuously and more how much choice remains once the cheapest tickets have sold out.

Eurostar’s fares have also changed significantly since the service began in 1994. At launch, a standard-class return ticket between London and Paris cost £95 (about $129 at current exchange rates) when booked two weeks in advance, while a more flexible fare cost £155 (about $210 at current exchange rates).

The cheapest fares available today are lower in cash terms, although direct comparisons are difficult because Eurostar now uses a different, demand-based pricing structure.

There are signs that lower prices could attract significantly more passengers. A 2025 study by consultancy Steer, commissioned by London St Pancras Highspeed, forecast that the number of international rail passengers using the high-speed line between London and the Channel Tunnel could rise from around 11 million a year to 35 million by 2040.

The study estimated that increased competition and growth in demand could eventually reduce fares by up to 30 per cent. That is a forecast, not a guarantee of lower fares or an indication of what Virgin tickets will cost.

Eurostar’s own figures also point to growing demand for international rail. Its share of the London-Amsterdam passenger market rose from 7 per cent in 2019 to more than 20 per cent in 2025, with the company saying much of that growth came at the expense of air travel.

The arrival of Virgin Trains, and potentially other operators, could therefore test whether greater competition can lower fares while attracting more passengers to rail.

But cheaper tickets are not guaranteed. New operators will face substantial costs for trains, infrastructure, Channel Tunnel access and international regulatory requirements.

More operators are eyeing the market

Virgin Trains is not the only company seeking to break into the market.

Trenitalia France has applied to operate 10 daily return services between London and Paris from 2029, while start-ups including Evolyn and Gemini Trains have also proposed international services.

Gemini’s current proposal is for 10 return services a day from 2029, with five serving Paris and five Brussels initially.

Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson has described the existing arrangement as a 30-year monopoly and has previously expressed interest in restoring direct services between London and Disneyland Paris.

Eurostar has argued that its fares are heavily influenced by infrastructure costs, including charges for using the UK rail network and the Channel Tunnel. The company also says these costs have increased in recent years.

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The key test will be whether new operators add enough capacity to drive stronger competition on both price and service.

For passengers, the prospect is nevertheless significant: after more than three decades with a single cross-Channel passenger rail operator, the 2030s could finally bring a choice of trains - and potentially a choice of fares - between Britain and mainland Europe.

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UK Eurostar Virgin Trains France Rail transport