The U.S. and Ukraine have reached a draft minerals deal, a key step in Kyiv’s bid for U.S. support as Trump pushes to end the war with Russia.
According to sources, the minerals deal would grant the United States access to Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth minerals, which are critical for industries ranging from semiconductors to defense. President Trump confirmed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to visit Washington later this week to finalize the agreement.
Strategic Resources at Stake
Ukraine holds some of Europe’s largest deposits of strategically important minerals, including lithium, titanium, and zirconium. As global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions continue to intensify, these resources have gained new importance.
This deal is being framed as a win-win opportunity: a potential economic boost for Kyiv and a way for Washington to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth minerals. However, critics argue that the agreement could place Ukraine in a vulnerable economic and geopolitical position, especially given the rapid shift in U.S. policy under Trump.
Concerns Over U.S. Intentions and the War’s Future
Political scientist Jakob Kullik suggests that the minerals deal is not just about economic interests but also about shifting the burden of military aid.
“Trump wants rare earths because the American economy is highly dependent on Chinese sources, and it's an economic and national security risk. There are not many American companies that can mine and produce rare earths domestically. Ukraine has these commodities, and to prevent China from gaining access to them, it becomes an option for the U.S. But another reason is making Ukraine financially pay for U.S. military support,” Kullik explains.
This transactional approach aligns with Trump’s broader stance on foreign aid and military assistance. Analysts warn that his desire to rapidly end the war could pressure Ukraine into economic or territorial compromises that might shift the balance of power in the region.
The Risk of Resource Exploitation
Not everyone sees the deal as beneficial. M. Steven Fish, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley, argues that expecting Ukraine to grant the U.S. access to a half-trillion dollars’ worth of minerals in exchange for $60 billion in aid is “an absolute absurdity.”
“Not only is it obviously completely lopsided, but we need to keep in mind that Ukraine has been defending the United States and our European allies from Russian aggression since 2022. Ukrainians have been doing the fighting and dying. All we've done is provide some aid, which is a pittance compared to what we've gotten from them,” Fish said.
Fish also criticized Trump’s approach, saying it represents a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy that prioritizes personal interests over national security.
“Trump loves Putin. Trump has loved Putin since 2016, at least. He's acted as basically an asset for Putin. Saying Ukraine provoked the invasion is like saying a raped woman provoked her rape. This deal is beyond surreal—it’s the kind of thing we can expect from Trump,” he added.
Geopolitical Implications and European Security
Beyond Ukraine, the deal raises serious questions about the future of European security. Many of Ukraine’s rare earth reserves lie in Russian-occupied territories, making future mining operations highly complex and dependent on geopolitical negotiations. In areas like Luhansk and Donetsk, ongoing conflict and security risks further complicate resource extraction.
Julie Michelle Klinger, a geographer specializing in rare earths, warned of the broader geopolitical consequences:
“Even though the global rare earth supply remains relatively stable, these elements tend to feature in broader geopolitical disputes. The resources in Ukraine are currently located in areas controlled by Russia, and that complicates things.”
With Trump questioning NATO and U.S. commitments to European allies, concerns are growing about how Europe will respond to the shifting dynamics.
“Europe needs to step up now and help replace the aid that will no longer be forthcoming from the U.S. under Trump. The French, Germans, and British leaders know perfectly well that Ukraine is defending them. They would not demand Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for support,” Fish emphasized.
“If the U.S. abandons NATO, Europe has no choice but to develop an independent defense policy. They need stronger defense industries, bigger militaries, and a united diplomatic front to counter Russia,” he added.
What Lies Ahead?
As Trump moves forward with plans to negotiate an end to the war, there are fears that Putin will use any ceasefire as a temporary pause to rearm before launching further offensives.
“The notion that Putin will just take what he has now and stop is absolute nonsense. He will take what he can get, go home to rearm, and then start pressuring Ukraine again for another invasion,” Fish warns.
Ukraine’s government faces an increasingly difficult balancing act: securing economic stability through U.S. investment while avoiding long-term exploitation of its resources. Zelenskyy’s upcoming visit to Washington may provide more clarity, but for now, Ukraine’s future remains uncertain, caught between geopolitical maneuvering and the pursuit of sovereignty.
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