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Azerbaijan presents a striking paradox. Although rich in oil and gas, it faces serious levels of water stress. Hydrocarbon reserves have allowed the country to provide energy security, build national wealth and export to major markets across Europe.
Yet water availability remains one of the country’s most pressing long-term challenges.
The pressure comes from several directions at once: limited domestic water resources, high dependence on transboundary rivers, the accelerating impact of climate change, ageing infrastructure and inefficient agricultural water use.
The issue is serious enough that some projections place Azerbaijan among the countries most exposed to water scarcity by 2050. Compared with other South Caucasus states, Azerbaijan has fewer available water resources, while its semi-arid climate makes it particularly vulnerable to pressure on surface and groundwater reserves.
Around 70 per cent of Azerbaijan’s water resources are formed outside its borders, making the country heavily dependent on water flows from neighbouring states. This vulnerability means water policy is no longer only an environmental issue. It is tied directly to public health, agriculture, economic resilience, social stability and national security.
Over the past three decades, Azerbaijan has achieved significant economic progress, moving into the upper-middle-income category largely on the back of oil and gas extraction and exports. But while the economy has continued to record positive results, water availability remains critical and could, if left unaddressed, become a source of economic and social instability.
Transboundary dependence is one of the core challenges. The Kura and Araz rivers are the main water arteries of the South Caucasus and among Azerbaijan’s most important sources of water. The Kura rises in Türkiye and flows through Georgia before entering Azerbaijan. The Araz also originates in Türkiye and passes through or along the borders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran before converging with the Kura and flowing towards the Caspian Sea.
As a downstream country, Azerbaijan is vulnerable to upstream water extraction, infrastructure decisions and pollution. These factors can reduce both the quantity and quality of water reaching Azerbaijani territory. Upstream dam projects and reported pollution from mining activities in neighbouring countries show why stronger regional water management is necessary to reduce shortages and contamination.
Climate change adds further pressure. Rising temperatures, reduced precipitation and more frequent drought conditions are already affecting Azerbaijan’s water sector. Some estimates suggest the country has lost between 15 and 20 per cent of its water resources due to climate-related pressures. The Kura and Araz river systems are among the most exposed to worsening drought conditions.
Unsustainable irrigation practices are another major stressor. Agriculture is Azerbaijan’s largest water consumer, and the problem is not only the volume of water used but also the way it is distributed. Much of the irrigation network still relies on open earthen canals and surface irrigation methods, which cause significant losses through leakage, evaporation, wastage and unauthorised consumption.
The combined effect of climate pressure, upstream projects, weak transboundary coordination and inefficient domestic water use has also contributed to the reverse-flow phenomenon, with Caspian Sea water entering major river systems. If this trend deepens, the salinisation of freshwater resources could threaten drinking water supplies and damage agricultural land, as saline water reduces soil quality and harms crops.
Access to safe and sufficient water is a basic human necessity and a fundamental public need. A lack of safe water poses risks to health, welfare and social stability.
Shortages of safe drinking water can lead to serious public health consequences, including infections and hygiene-related diseases. In many parts of Azerbaijan, especially outside major urban centres, concerns over ageing pipe networks and rural infrastructure continue to affect confidence in tap water safety.
If access to safe drinking water deteriorates, water could increasingly become a privilege rather than a guaranteed public good. That would deepen social inequalities and hit poorer and predominantly rural communities hardest. A scenario in which safe water becomes expensive and unevenly available no longer seems impossible.
Water scarcity could also shape the country’s demographics by driving greater rural-to-urban migration. Some estimates suggest that more than 200,000 residents in the Neftchala and Salyan districts may face relocation pressures in the future due to water shortages and salinisation.
The agricultural sector is especially exposed. Agriculture depends heavily on water resources, employs a significant share of the rural workforce and contributes to national food security. Any disruption to irrigation therefore has direct consequences for crops, employment and rural livelihoods.
Less water means less irrigation, lower yields and higher pressure on food prices. Continued economic development and population growth are also expected to increase demand for water, further aggravating an already difficult situation. If existing systems are not modernised, the result could be deeper socio-economic stress, including food insecurity, electricity shortages, unemployment and income instability.
Because water scarcity affects national development, it requires a high-level state response and comprehensive long-term measures. The authorities have already recognised the scale of the challenge, which is a positive step towards building a more efficient and sustainable water system.
The State Water Resources Agency was established in 2023 to strengthen the management of water resources. At the beginning of 2026, Azerbaijan also approved the State Program for the Improvement of Water Supply, Wastewater and Stormwater Systems in Baku and the Absheron Peninsula for 2026–2035.
This programme focuses on modernising water systems, managing environmental and disaster risks, and introducing digital technologies in the water sector. Its success will depend on implementation, financing, oversight and the ability to reduce waste across the system.
At the regional level, Azerbaijan has a strong interest in more efficient transboundary water management. Through intensified diplomatic efforts and practical cooperation, Baku can push for fairer and more sustainable water use among the riparian states of the Kura-Araz basin.
Stronger regional oversight, joint assessments of unilateral water projects and clearer ecological rules on river pollution could help reduce water-supply risks. Such mechanisms would not remove all political disagreements, but they could create a more predictable framework for managing shared resources.
At the national level, reform of the irrigation system could save a significant amount of water. Wider use of drip and sprinkler irrigation, replacing inefficient open canals and improving monitoring of water distribution would relieve pressure on water resources and improve agricultural resilience.
Because agriculture is on the frontline of the water crisis, the idea of “virtual water imports” has also entered the discussion. This would mean importing some water-intensive crops rather than growing them domestically. However, while such an approach could reduce water use, it may also expose the country to food-security risks and should be treated as a last-resort option rather than a first response.
Water is an essential resource, and water-stressed countries are often the first to feel the consequences of scarcity. In Azerbaijan, water shortages have become an issue of national security and stability.
The clock is ticking. Climate change is intensifying, infrastructure remains under pressure and the country’s downstream position makes it dependent on developments beyond its borders. Measures to preserve water resources must therefore remain a high national priority.
Water affects every sphere of society. A lack of it creates problems for health, agriculture, employment, migration, social equality and economic stability. Effective domestic water policy, combined with serious diplomatic and political efforts to improve transboundary water management, is essential for building a more sustainable future for Azerbaijan.
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