Azerbaijan’s niche strategy in the Western Balkans

The AnewZ Opinion section provides a platform for independent voices to share expert perspectives on global and regional issues. The views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the official position of AnewZ

The shifting international landscape from a rigid, Western-oriented world order to a more flexible one has contributed to the rise of numerous countries, especially from the Global South to the status of emerging middle powers. 

These countries have introduced new diplomatic strategies and priorities in international affairs. Even though there is no consensus on the definition of a middle power or on the eligibility criteria for this category, a common understanding suggests that middle powers use niche diplomacy as a main foreign policy strategy to expand and strengthen their influence.

Azerbaijan represents one of the newly emerging middle powers that effectively applies niche diplomacy to balance its geopolitical position in relation to major powers and strengthen its influence through regional activities. Niche diplomacy, which requires the concentration of limited resources on specific areas or regions, can be particularly effective when a middle power country uses its major assets in a responsible way that is, most importantly, compatible with its capabilities. Azerbaijan has skillfully utilised its strongest assets, its hydrocarbon wealth and its location, to gain more influence regionally and globally, especially since the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

The country’s rise to middle power status started with the 1994 "Contract of the Century," which transformed Azerbaijan into an important energy exporter and has been considered the foundation for its current identification as an emerging middle power. Through energy diplomacy and pipeline infrastructure, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum oil and gas pipelines and the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), Azerbaijan has established itself as a stable regional energy hub that connects Asia to Europe and bypasses traditional routes.

The 2020 military victory in the Second Garabagh War and subsequent territorial consolidation have confirmed Azerbaijan’s middle power status and the country’s ability to project influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood.

The aftermath of the Second Garabagh War and the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict motivated Azerbaijan to expand its influence further. This included offering alternative energy exports and routes to the Western Balkans, a region highly dependent on Russia’s oil and gas supplies. The Western Balkans represent a region that often holds a peripheral position but offers a gateway to European markets and transit routes, as well as a platform for aspiring middle powers such as Azerbaijan to strengthen their regional influence through niche strategies.

Baku’s engagement with the Western Balkan countries revolves mainly around energy security, infrastructure investment, shared post-conflict experience and a political philosophy that emphasizes territorial integrity and national sovereignty.

Energy security

Azerbaijan’s energy rise in the Western Balkans, mainly in Serbia and Albania, has not happened overnight. It was a result of patient work between governments, numerous signed memorandums, frequent high-level official visits and considerable investments in pipeline networks. Although Albania has served as a transit country for Azerbaijani gas through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline since 2020, the Bulgaria–Serbia interconnector marked a turning point. It became operational in 2023 and linked Serbia to the wider SGC network, significantly strengthening the Serbia–Azerbaijan energy partnership.

The SGC megaproject, which has become increasingly important due to the energy crisis in Europe caused by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, has the potential to expand Azerbaijan’s energy role in other Western Balkan states through new interconnectors. For instance, North Macedonia has expressed a strong interest in joining the SGC network either through a possible interconnector with Greece or Serbia. Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Montenegro are actively pursuing access to Azerbaijani natural gas mainly through the planned Ionian-Adriatic Pipeline (IAP), as both want to reduce their total dependence on Russia’s gas imports.

In addition to traditional energy exports, Azerbaijan has also been interested in expanding renewable energy initiatives. An ambitious green energy corridor is currently in the planning phase. It aims to export renewable electricity from the Caspian region to Europe via Black Sea cables. The initiative already includes some Balkan countries, with possible expansion to the Western Balkans.

Azerbaijan’s energy initiatives in the Western Balkans provide much-needed energy security, which has been shaken by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The majority of the Western Balkan states are highly dependent on Russia’s energy imports, mainly natural gas. Such dependence has become a political and economic distress for the small states of the Western Balkan region that seek alternative and reliable energy suppliers.

Azerbaijan’s willingness to cooperate with different states in the region and offer its energy assets, without interfering in regional political disputes, has opened the door for the country to successfully exercise its niche diplomacy through a flexible form of plurilateralism.

• Regional turmoil tests Azerbaijan–Armenia dynamics
• Green energy corridor linking Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan moves forward
• Azerbaijan's green turn: From oil dependence to energy hub

Investments in infrastructure

Another niche area that makes Azerbaijan influential in the Western Balkans is investment in infrastructure, which primarily includes energy connectivity, transport links and roads. In Serbia, Azerbaijan has been very active with significant infrastructural investment in the energy and road areas. In addition to delivering gas through the Serbia-Bulgaria interconnector with a 1.8 bcm/year capacity pipeline, Azerbaijan actively collaborates with officials in Belgrade on the development of a Gas-Fired Power Plant that would contribute to greater gas exports to Serbia and boost the energy partnership between the two countries.

Azerbaijan is also involved in the development of gas infrastructure in Albania. The recently announced “Nur” project in the Korça region of Albania represents a significant step in the expansion of Azerbaijani energy investments in the region. This project has twofold consequences. It allows Albania to gain access to alternative energy sources, helping the country in its decarbonisation process, and it strengthens Azerbaijan’s influence in Southeast Europe.

In the area of transport connectivity, Azerbaijan is already present with transportation and road investments, mainly in Serbia. Azerbaijani construction company AzVirt has become a very active contributor to Serbia’s road infrastructure development. It is involved in building segments of the Ruma-Šabac highway and other key routes that help strengthen regional transport links and connectivity. In addition to tourism and energy investments, Azerbaijan is discussing potential investments in Montenegro's infrastructure development, including the Bar-Boljare highway and other transport network initiatives.

• President Ilham Aliyev says TRIPP corridor’s name signals long-term U.S. commitment
• Munich Security Conference panel sees Middle Corridor as peace catalyst

Shared experiences and cultural ties

The Western Balkans still carries post-conflict and territorial integrity struggles, which have shaped the region's political landscape, making it receptive to those foreign states that respect and understand these burdens.

Azerbaijan has shown a great deal of understanding and willingness to invest in the Western Balkans. The country has surprisingly managed to accomplish simultaneous and balanced collaboration with each state in the Western Balkans, regardless of the region's continuing struggle with internal quarrels. For instance, Baku has managed to foster close diplomatic ties with both Serbia and Albania despite their deep disagreements over the recognition of Kosovo’s independence.

Azerbaijan’s and Serbia’s similar historical and political struggles over territorial integrity and sovereignty have brought these two countries closer together. Azerbaijani officials have been fostering strong cultural ties with Serbia through the symbolic restoration of cultural sites in Serbia and monument projects there. Such cultural initiatives help Azerbaijan promote its culture and boost its soft power.

With Bosnia and Herzegovina, Azerbaijan fosters special cultural relations shaped by shared historical experiences and the legacy of bloody conflicts that left both nations scarred by war victims and forced displacement.

Humanitarianism has been an important aspect of Azerbaijan’s diplomatic outreach in Bosnia. Through the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, Azerbaijan has implemented a number of projects, including the reconstruction of a centre for the blind and visually impaired children and youth in Sarajevo. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Azerbaijan provided humanitarian aid in 40,000 doses of vaccines to Bosnia and Herzegovina for the fight against the coronavirus.

Azerbaijan also nurtures friendly cultural relations with other Western Balkan states. For instance, through the Azerbaijan-Montenegro Cultural and Economic Center, Azerbaijan promotes active cultural exchange with Montenegro by organizing cultural and traditional events, such as concerts of Azerbaijani folk music and dances. In November 2025, the National Library of Albania in Tirana opened an Azerbaijani literature section to foster bilateral intellectual ties and showcase Azerbaijani culture.

• The March days of 1918: Azerbaijan's history, remembrance, and path to peace

Niche diplomacy as a tool of influence

As an emerging middle power with strong ambition, Azerbaijan has been using niche diplomacy in its regional foreign policy activism to boost its geopolitical influence and position. For Azerbaijan, its niche strategy in the Western Balkans is a logical geopolitical choice for investing in a cluster of small countries in a peripheral but strategically important region that offers a gateway to broader Europe and its considerable markets.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan’s assets align perfectly with the current needs of the Western Balkan states, which require greater energy security and alternative suppliers while also welcoming foreign investment to modernize their underdeveloped infrastructure.

Through strategically tailored niche diplomacy, Azerbaijan has gained significant influence among Western Balkan countries, which perceive this emerging Caucasian power as a reliable and powerful partner, able to deliver much-needed energy and transport investments without any political interference or pressure on the region’s internal affairs.

Tags

News Politics Western Balkans Azerbaijan Strategy Sustainable Development Oil Oil and gas