Why Central Asia Must Rethink Its Approach to Afghanistan

The AnewZ Opinion section provides a platform for independent voices to share expert perspectives on global and regional issues. The views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the official position of AnewZ

Central Asian states are gradually shifting from cautious distance to conditional engagement with Afghanistan. They now emphasize regional dialogue, economic ties, and pragmatic cooperation while staying alert to security risks. Efforts focus on reconnecting trade, transit, and investment pathways, constrained by concerns over militancy, drug trafficking, and internal instability.

Regional leaders pursue a policy of managed integration rather than outright recognition. The region’s diplomatic tone has shifted from isolation to conditional inclusion, reflecting an understanding that sustainable security depends on engagement rather than on neglect.

Yet, internal political interests and differing levels of risk tolerance among the states continue to prevent a unified stance. The key question remains: can Central Asia translate its cautious diplomacy into a coherent regional strategy toward Afghanistan or will fragmented national agendas continue to undermine collective stability?

Central Asia’s pragmatic turn

Central Asian states’ engagement with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan reflects a pragmatic shift driven by economic interdependence and concerns for regional stability rather than ideological alignment. Viewing Afghanistan as a crucial land bridge to South Asia—particularly to Pakistan and India—these republics now prioritize trade, transit, and energy connectivity over isolation.

Uzbekistan is promoting the Trans-Afghan Railway, which would link Termez with Pakistani seaports via Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul, aiming to integrate Afghanistan into broader Eurasian trade corridors.

Turkmenistan, investing $10 billion in the TAPI gas pipeline, relies on Taliban assurances that 30,000 troops will secure the route. Meanwhile, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are advancing the CASA-1000 electricity project to export surplus power to Pakistan through Afghan territory.

Kazakhstan, traditionally more cautious, has removed the Taliban from its list of banned organizations to facilitate commerce and investment, indirectly aligning with Pakistan’s connectivity agenda. 

Collectively, these initiatives illustrate a regional recalibration toward conditional economic engagement—balancing opportunity with security risk—and underscore Central Asia’s recognition that sustainable stability requires integrating, rather than isolating, Afghanistan within regional development frameworks.

Immediately after the Taliban takeover in 2021, most Central Asian states—except Turkmenistan, which maintained a quieter stance—initially leaned toward diplomatic and economic disengagement, focusing on security containment through measures such as border defense and cautious acceptance of Afghan refugees. However, over time, practical realities began to reshape this approach.

Central Asian states have begun to reestablish or maintain limited formal ties—such as embassies staffed by Taliban appointees—not as a gesture of full endorsement but to preserve channels for humanitarian work, trade, and influence. Central Asian countries are attempting to navigate a delicate balance: recognizing that Afghanistan cannot be geographically and economically isolated, while also avoiding being drawn into its internal turbulence. This zone of “conditional engagement” is grounded in three principles:

·Dialogue first
·Economic linkage over dependency
·Security hedging

Over time, their approach has shifted toward cautious engagement, driven by the need to protect regional stability and manage risks through limited cooperation rather than isolation. Although initial fears of radical infiltration have not materialized on a large scale, occasional border incidents—especially along the Tajik and Turkmen frontiers—demonstrate that tensions persist.

The expansion of Central Asian Trade with Afghanistan

Economic interaction between Afghanistan and the five Central Asian republics has intensified in recent years, reflecting a pragmatic shift toward regional connectivity and shared stability. Central Asian states increasingly perceive Afghanistan not as a threat but as an emerging transit and trade partner linking them to South Asian markets.

For example, Uzbekistan has emerged as Afghanistan’s main trading partner. The Jamestown Foundation reports that bilateral trade reached $1.1 billion in 2024, a 25% increase from 2023. The growth was primarily driven by energy exports, construction materials, and transit services. Projects such as the Trans-Afghan Railway and the Termez Cargo Center show Uzbekistan’s commitment to using Afghanistan as a logistical bridge to the Indian Ocean.

Turkmenistan follows a path similar to Uzbekistan, with trade valued at around $670 million in 2024. Most of this commerce stems from electricity exports and transit projects like the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline, which, if completed, could transform Afghanistan into a vital energy corridor.

Kazakhstan’s trade with Afghanistan reached $615 million in 2023, mainly exports flour, food products, and construction materials. In 2024 it allocated $500 million to develop rail connectivity through Afghanistan toward Pakistani ports.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, though smaller players, engage through electricity and agricultural exports. The CASA-1000 project, linking Kyrgyz and Tajik hydropower to South Asia via Afghanistan, illustrates their shared economic interests and potential for regional integration.

Collectively, Central Asia–Afghanistan trade reached nearly $1.7 billion in 2024, marking steady regional growth. Despite persistent security risks, economic pragmatism now defines regional diplomacy. Strengthening these trade ties could enhance connectivity and simultaneously foster a more stable and economically interdependent Central Asia.

Will Economic Integration Ensure Regional Stability?

Increased trade, new transportation corridors, and energy cooperation have fostered interdependence, reducing isolation and promoting pragmatic diplomacy. However, persistent challenges—such as political uncertainty in Afghanistan infrastructure vulnerabilities, and uneven development—continue to present obstacles to sustainable peace. Long-term stability will depend on whether these initiatives extend beyond transactional exchanges to incorporate governance, security collaboration, and social inclusion.

Ultimately, while economic integration holds significant potential, only a comprehensive regional strategy can transform connectivity into genuine stability across Central Asia.

Central Asian governments have prioritized border control and migration management to prevent uncontrolled movements of people and goods from Afghanistan. Diplomatic communication with Kabul enables limited coordination on these issues, while Pakistan—already burdened by a large refugee population, continues to balance humanitarian concerns with security imperatives. Engagement with Kabul also facilitates dialogue on combating common threats and reducing cross-border risks.

While the Central Asian states favor diplomatic and cooperative approaches, Pakistan maintains a more assertive stance, pressing for stronger security commitments from the Afghan authorities.

By maintaining cautious engagement, Central Asian states aim to contain risks, stabilize their borders, and prevent Afghanistan’s instability from spilling over into their territories. This approach represents a delicate balance between cooperation and vigilance in pursuit of sustainable regional security.

Central Asian states are increasingly aiming to influence Afghanistan’s trajectory through diplomacy rather than confrontation. Similar to Pakistan, they engage with the Taliban in a limited manner, prioritizing stability and economic connectivity over formal political recognition.

In contrast to the 1990s, when they opposed the Taliban, regional governments now adopt a more pragmatic approach, seeking cooperation to protect their interests and promote trade. Their engagement is conditional, focusing on ensuring security commitments and preventing renewed instability. This cautious diplomacy reflects a broader strategy of managed engagement—maintaining dialogue with Kabul while mitigating risks. Its success will hinge on the Taliban’s willingness to uphold regional security guarantees and cooperate in sustaining peace.

Practical engagement now defines Central Asia’s engagement with Afghanistan, with trade, connectivity, and regional stability at its heart. Projects like Uzbekistan’s Trans-Afghan Corridor and Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan initiatives aim to connect Central Asia to South Asia’s ports. Economic ties are strengthening, with increasing trade and investment in places like Termez.

Despite security and financial challenges, regional leaders view engagement as crucial for stability, integration, and Afghanistan’s economic normalization.

Central Asia’s diplomacy with Afghanistan has evolved from isolation to pragmatic regionalism, driven by economic necessity and strategic foresight. Connectivity projects and trade expansion exhibit progress, but true stability will rely on political consistency, security cooperation, and inclusive governance in Afghanistan. Economic integration alone cannot secure peace without coordinated regional policy and collective risk management.

The region’s future depends on whether Central Asian states can turn conditional diplomacy into cohesive regional leadership, balancing opportunity with resilience to transform Afghanistan’s uncertainty into a foundation for shared growth and lasting security across Eurasia.

Nurbolat NYSHANBAYEV is an Assistant Professor, PhD at the Higher School of International Relations and Diplomacy,  Turan University, specializing in international security, diplomacy, and the geopolitics of the Middle East and Greater Eurasia.

Copied