Renewables Race: EU and China Compete for Central Asia’s Energy Future

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As Russia shifts its energy exports from the West to the East, Europe — until recently a major buyer of Russian oil and gas — is seeking alternative sources of supply.

Backed by Chinese investment, Central Asian and South Caucasus nations are ramping up their push into renewables — a move that could reshape Europe’s future energy mix.

Moscow’s deal with Beijing on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline – a 50 billion cubic metre conduit running from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal to China through Mongolia – is expected to impact Europe’s energy future. Prior to the Ukraine war, Russia was supplying 155 billion cubic metres to Europe annually. Now, China is likely to become Russian energy giant Gazprom’s main export destination.

Fully aware of the shift, the European Union is partnering with Central Asian nations to safeguard its energy future. Over the past few years, the EU has signed memoranda of understanding with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on raw materials, while also aiming to begin importing natural gas from Turkmenistan. Brussels has also expressed interested in increasing gas imports from Azerbaijan.

But fossil fuel reserves in Central Asia and the South Caucasus are not unlimited. The regional actors cannot risk their own energy security by helping Europe end its dependence on Russian oil and gas. That is why they are actively developing their green energy sector, hoping to produce electricity both for domestic use and for export.

In other words, renewables can help Central Asian and South Caucasus oil and gas producers meet their own energy needs while freeing up more fossil fuel exports for the EU. Azerbaijan made it clear back in 2022. The more renewables it has, the more gas it will be able to export. The EU, however, is not interested only in the Caspian nation’s natural gas, but also in its green energy.

Brussels is actively pushing for the realisation of the Caspian–Black Sea–European Green Energy Corridor, which aims to deliver electricity generated by offshore wind farms in the Caspian Sea to Europe. Various international corporations, from the United Kingdom, through the United Arab Emirates to Saudi Arabia, are already involved in the development of the country’s renewable sector, while some of them plan to invest in the construction of the offshore and onshore wind power plants in the former Soviet republic.

If these ambitious plans succeed, Azerbaijan could become a significant green energy producer. As such, it could use green electricity to meet its own needs and export the surplus to Europe. Central Asian states seem to have similar plans.

Kazakhstan, alongside Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, is developing a project to export green electricity to Europe via a high-voltage Caspian Sea cable and a Black Sea cable, with the goal of establishing a "green energy corridor.” But to achieve this goal, Astana and Tashkent will first have to unlock their green energy potential.

Uzbekistan plans to increase the share of green energy in total generation to more than 50% by 2030. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, aims to generate 15% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 and 50% by 2050. With the support of the Asian Development Bank, Astana has already begun developing its green energy sector, while Tashkent relies on assistance from the World Bank to advance its renewable energy initiatives.

The problem, however, is that the population of the two nations is rapidly growing, which drives up energy consumption. Thus, it remains unclear if they will be in a position to meet rising domestic demand while still exporting green energy to Europe.

It is, undoubtedly, a challenging path, but with the right mix of investment, technology, policy, and support, it is not impossible to succeed. What they will need is significant investment in renewable energy infrastructure – especially solar, wind, hydro – to expand capacity quickly enough.

Although the EU, through its Global Gateway initiative, plans to finance the region’s green energy infrastructure, its potential global rival – China – is also very active, pursuing its own strategic investments and partnerships with Central Asian actors.

Beijing, as one of Kazakhstan’s largest trade and investment partners, is heavily involved in the development of the nation’s green energy sector. Over the past five years, China has invested more than $3 billion in Kazakhstan’s renewable energy infrastructure, while green energy has become a cornerstone of bilateral cooperation between the People’s Republic and Uzbekistan.

The fact that Tashkent has already begun calculations for building high-voltage cross-border power transmission lines through Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan toward China, indicates that Uzbekistan may eventually export green electricity not only to Europe, but to the People’s Republic as well. Neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, despite frequently facing power outages, appears to be pursuing a similar strategy. According to reports, Bishkek aims to increase the share of renewable energy in its energy mix and possibly supply green electricity to China in the future.

The EU and China, therefore, appear to share the same goals in this strategically important region – investing in its green energy development with an eye toward securing future imports of renewable electricity.

But the question remains - will the regional actors have the capacity to meet the expectations of both global powers while safeguarding their own energy security?

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