Iran-U.S. peace talks 'definitely not dead' says analyst as Trump rejects Tehran's proposal

Talks between the U.S. and Iran remain in a delicate state after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected a 14-point proposal conveyed via Pakistan, while simultaneously suggesting that discussions with Tehran have been “positive.”

This dual messaging indicates that Washington is not closing the door on diplomacy, but rather maintaining leverage while negotiations continue according to Dr Hamza Iftikhar, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).

“The talks may be at a stalemate, but they’re definitely not dead,” Iftikhar told AnewZ's Nadia Gyane on the Daybreak programme on Monday, highlighting the strategic ambiguity in Trump’s messaging.

According to the analyst, the disagreement is largely about sequencing. Iran is prioritising an immediate end to the war, blockades, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. is pushing for commitments on nuclear activity and regional security first.

“The U.S. is rejecting the proposal in its current form, but not the process of negotiation itself,” he noted.

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Strait of Hormuz emerges as first step

The Strait of Hormuz has become the immediate focal point, with the U.S. presenting plans to guide stranded ships as a humanitarian move aimed at easing global economic strain.

The disruption has affected global markets, particularly oil, gas, and fertiliser prices. A phased approach is likely, beginning with ensuring safe passage for ships, followed by easing blockades and gradually moving toward broader negotiations according to Iftikhar.

“A statement about reopening the passage alone can help calm the markets,” Iftikhar added.

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Backchannel diplomacy and phased negotiations

Despite public tensions, negotiations are continuing behind the scenes, with diplomatic contacts ongoing between regional actors. Iftikhar suggests that initial reactions from Iran may not fully reflect the internal stance of leadership, suggesting that backchannel diplomacy remains active.

“The immediate responses we hear may not represent what the higher-ups are thinking,” the analyst explained.

He added that this indicates that while talks may appear stalled publicly, progress could still be unfolding privately through intermediaries and regional players.

Lebanon conflict adds another layer

The situation in Lebanon involving Israel and Hezbollah, is further complicating the diplomatic landscape Iftikhar said, adding that a ceasefire exists but lacks enforcement, making it fragile and unreliable.

“The ceasefire only matters if it becomes an enforceable security arrangement, not just a diplomatic statement,” Iftikhar said, adding that developments in Lebanon are closely tied to the outcome of U.S.-Iran negoatiations.

U.S. strategy: coercive diplomacy

The analyst suggests that the U.S. appears to be pursuing a strategy of coercive diplomacy - applying military and economic pressure while avoiding full-scale war with boots on the ground. With time constraints and domestic political pressure, Washington is balancing force with negotiation according to Iftikhar.

“The U.S. is likely trying to avoid a large-scale ground war, but maintain enough pressure to force a deal,” Iftikhar said adding that reopening the Strait of Hormuz and limiting Iran’s nuclear programme without escalating into a broader conflict are the main objectives.

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Hormuz Trump Politics Iran Israel ceasefire United States Washington Tehran nuclear talks