Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated after renewed warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump that military action against Iran has not been ruled out, alongside claims that Iranian leadership is eager to reach a deal.
Trump’s remarks come amid ongoing questions over the durability of diplomatic channels, the impact of sanctions on Iran’s economy, and the strategic risks surrounding key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking to AnewZ from Berlin, Germany, Ruslan Suleymanov, associate fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), said the latest rhetoric should be interpreted less as a signal of imminent war and more as part of a broader pressure strategy aimed at bringing Iran back into negotiations.
Suleymanov argued that such statements are not new in tone or substance and are unlikely to significantly alter calculations in Tehran.
“This kind of threat does not really affect the Iranian authorities,” he said, suggesting that Washington’s rhetoric is primarily designed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table rather than signal an immediate military escalation.
He added that U.S. military efforts in previous confrontations had not achieved decisive strategic outcomes, reinforcing the view in Tehran that pressure tactics are more political than operational.
Iran’s response to the heightened U.S. naval presence in the region, described by Tehran as a “siege”, reflects growing economic and strategic pressure, Suleymanov noted.
However, he stressed that Iran has been under sanctions since the 1980s and has adapted to prolonged external economic constraints.
“This is not something new for Iran,” he said, adding that while pressure is increasing, the more significant risk may be internal instability rather than immediate external escalation.
He suggested that worsening economic conditions could eventually trigger domestic protests, particularly in the absence of active military conflict.
On warnings of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Suleymanov said the global economic implications would be severe, particularly for energy markets.
He warned that prolonged disruption in the Gulf would place sustained upward pressure on oil prices and could contribute to wider global economic instability.
Attention has also shifted to alternative maritime routes such as Bab al-Mandeb, although Suleymanov cautioned that this corridor is itself vulnerable to disruption, particularly due to instability involving Houthi forces.
“If there is no negotiation, we would see new challenges for the global economy,” he said, warning of a widening energy and trade shock.
Commenting on the role of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Suleymanov said humanitarian organisations would have limited influence in the event of renewed large-scale hostilities.
He said such institutions can document and highlight humanitarian consequences but do not have the capacity to prevent or halt escalation on the ground.
Despite heightened rhetoric, Suleymanov said diplomatic communication between Washington and Tehran has not fully broken down.
He noted that indirect channels involving Pakistan, Oman and Russia remain active, even if formal talks are inconsistent.
“There are many indirect channels of negotiation,” he said, adding that while positions remain far apart, both sides appear to have informally accepted the need for at least a pause in hostilities.
He suggested that neither side currently believes a full-scale war would deliver meaningful political or military gains.
On the potential role of major powers, Suleymanov said neither Russia nor China has decisive leverage to halt escalation if conflict resumes, despite their diplomatic engagement.
He said both countries had previously attempted to encourage dialogue, particularly China, but their ability to shape outcomes on the ground remains limited.
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