Strait of Hormuz tensions rise after tanker incidents, expert warns of oil shock and escalation

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are rising as a ceasefire nears expiry with no agreement in place, amid reported attacks on vessels that have heightened fears of renewed conflict and disruption to global oil supplies.

Iranian gunboats have reportedly fired on a tanker, while another vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, according to reports. The incidents have intensified concerns over energy security and freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical shipping routes.

Tehran has signalled potential restrictions on passage through the strait, citing what it describes as breaches of trust by the U.S., as Washington and Tehran appear to be moving towards high-stakes negotiations in the coming days.

“Really dangerous" and mixed messages from both sides

In an interview with AnewZ, Ivani Vassoler, a professor at the State University of New York, described the situation as “really dangerous”, warning that uncertainty is being amplified by the approaching end of a ceasefire period. “We know that we are in a ceasefire that soon will expire, and nobody knows precisely what is going to happen next,” she said.

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She pointed to competing accounts of events at sea, describing “contradictory information” and “contradictory narratives” from both sides.

“There is a type of narrative coming from Washington, from the Trump administration, and a different narrative coming from the government of Iran,” she said.

Vassoler suggested the conflicting messages may form part of negotiation tactics.

“We imagine that these conflicting messages are part of the negotiation tactics. The actors would rather not expose precisely what their next moves are,” she said.

Risk of market shock and wider economic impact

Vassoler warned that renewed pressure on energy markets could emerge if access through the strait is further restricted.

“It is obviously dangerous and threatening to the energy markets,” she said, adding that rising prices could have wider implications for inflation and consumer costs.

She noted that the impact could extend beyond oil, as other critical goods pass through the waterway.

“There are markets for fertilisers that go through the Strait of Hormuz,” she said, warning that disruption could increase costs and strain global supply chains.

Aviation disruption and uncertainty over talks

She also highlighted potential knock-on effects for aviation if fuel prices continue to rise.

“There is economic instability in several countries as gas prices and aviation fuel prices go up,” she said.

Professor added that airlines are already responding to uncertainty, with carriers in “several areas of the world, but particularly Asia and Europe” cancelling flights.

Attention is now turning to diplomacy, with another round of negotiations expected soon.

“We are expecting, in the next few days, another round of negotiations in Pakistan,” she said, noting expectations that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance could attend.

However, Vassoler cautioned that outcomes remain uncertain.

“It is absolutely uncertain whether the results of the negotiations, the interest of the United Nations and the interest of Iran collide; there is no agreement,” she said.

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Iran USA Israel Lebanon Strait of Hormuz Pakistan