As diplomatic talks over a possible U.S.–Iran framework agreement continue, analysts are assessing how any deal could alter security dynamics across the Middle East.
Analysts are examining whether reduced tensions between Washington and Tehran could influence Israel’s security doctrine and affect the long-running hostilities involving Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The debate comes as regional alliances remain fluid and military deterrence continues to play a central role in shaping policy decisions.
Against this backdrop, AnewZ’s Bakhtiyar Hasanov spoke to geopolitical and security expert Eitan Charnoff, who assessed the potential implications of a possible agreement and the uncertainties surrounding its outcomes.
Speaking to AnewZ, Charnoff cautioned against drawing early conclusions, stressing that several key variables remain unresolved.
“I think that there’s a few key variables that we need to follow. Number one is, will there even be a deal? Just because U.S. President Trump has so far been reluctant to resume hostilities, despite various actions by Iran, and seems to be making several concessions, the reality is he’s a tough negotiator, and his tough negotiating is what led to epic fury there. And I believe that it’s highly reasonable that an unfavourable outcome from negotiations could trigger eventual new U.S. action against Iran.”
He added that, even in the event of an agreement, its structure would likely reflect key security concerns.
“Assuming there is a deal, I think that it will likely be one that takes at least some of Israel’s key demands into account, especially around the nuclear issue. And it will probably, in the short term, limit Israel’s capacity to strike Iran unilaterally, and perhaps contain Israeli action in Lebanon.”
Charnoff warned that any stabilising effect could prove temporary, with underlying risks persisting in the medium to long term.
“I believe in the medium and long term, Israel will regain its freedom of unilateral action, and there will always be some unexpected event, especially when we’re talking about Lebanon. Some Hezbollah attack, some unique opportunity to kill a senior leader - something will eventually re-trigger some sort of future violence, certainly in Lebanon.”
He also emphasised that escalation pathways would remain open if perceived red lines were crossed.
“In my opinion, if Iran crosses certain red lines while Trump is holding fire, digging out nuclear stockpiles, arming missiles, Israeli unilateral action is never really fully off the table.”
Charnoff said it remains too early to determine how a potential U.S.–Iran framework deal could reshape regional security dynamics. While he suggested that any agreement could temporarily constrain Israeli military freedom of action, particularly in Lebanon, he stressed that long-term stability remains uncertain, with the possibility of renewed escalation still present depending on regional developments and perceived security threats.
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A senior U.S. official said on Monday that the memorandum of understanding linked to the U.S.-Iran agreement had been signed by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf.
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Details of a reported draft memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran offer the clearest picture yet of how both sides plan to end months of conflict and move towards a longer-term settlement.
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