U.S.-Iran diplomacy is gaining momentum after weeks of military escalation, but tensions remain high from the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon. Analysts say simultaneous negotiations and military pressure reflect a broader regional struggle that is far from over.
Speaking on AnewZ, Middle East researcher Bassel Doueik from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) said reports of an imminent agreement should be treated cautiously, noting that similar claims have surfaced repeatedly.
“Well, I think this is the ninth time that Axios says that an imminent deal between Iran and the U.S. is there and that the Iranian and American negotiators are coming to a point that can actually bring them together,” Doueik said.
He also suggested that financial interests may be influencing developments behind the scenes.
“A lot of people were selling short the crude oil that made them a lot of money 70 minutes before the Axios report came out,” Doueik stated.
Doueik argued that the Trump administration underestimated Iran’s military capabilities at the start of the conflict and wrongly expected Tehran to collapse quickly under pressure.
“It only needs 100 hours, and the IRGC will collapse. And that was not the case. Iran is more of a formidable force. It has been able to attack Gulf states. It has been able to attack Israel,” he said.
According to Doueik, the conflict has created growing political and economic pressure on Washington, including rising fuel prices and domestic political concerns ahead of elections.
The analyst described Pakistan as a key intermediary between Tehran and Washington, as distrust remains high between both sides.
However, he noted that some Iranian hardliners remain sceptical of Islamabad’s role, believing Pakistan may be buying time for further U.S. military action rather than facilitating a genuine breakthrough.
Despite renewed diplomatic activity, military threats and escalation continue across the region.
Doueik said this reflects a broader pressure strategy by Washington rather than a contradiction between diplomacy and conflict.
“The U.S. is telling Iran that we can go back to fighting. We can bomb you. We can wipe out your power plants,” he said.
“But we also have another option, and that option is if you come to the table.”
He added that the United States continues to demand restrictions on Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programme, conditions Tehran is unlikely to fully accept.
Doueik said the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical unresolved issues in any future agreement.
He added that Gulf countries are divided in how they view the conflict. While Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait are focused on ending instability because of threats to energy exports and trade, the United Arab Emirates remains more closely aligned with Israel’s broader objective of weakening Iran’s leadership and the IRGC.
Doueik also warned that even if Washington and Tehran move towards de-escalation, instability across the wider region is likely to continue, particularly in Lebanon.
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U.S. President Donald Trump has again said Iran is keen to reach a deal quickly, but a senior Iranian security official rejected the claim, saying Tehran will not negotiate until its conditions are met.
U.S. President Donald Trump has again said Iran is keen to reach a deal quickly, but a senior Iranian security official rejected the claim, saying Tehran will not negotiate until its conditions are met.
U.S. Central Command said 101 commercial vessels have been redirected in the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices rose more than three per cent amid fresh regional attacks and supply concerns.
Maritime trackers received new reports of an attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), adding to concerns about energy supplies after Saudi Arabia shut down a vital oil pipeline on Saturday.
Saudi Arabia is now facing pressure from both ends of the Arabian Peninsula. While the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting Gulf shipping and energy flows, fighting has intensified in western Yemen, bringing the Houthis back into direct confrontation with the kingdom.
Iran has warned it will retaliate against any future U.S. attacks, saying American energy interests and infrastructure across the Gulf could become targets in a further escalation of the conflict.
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