Iran could lose up to $435 million in oil exports due to a U.S. naval blockade, though a full institutional collapse remains unlikely, according to a geopolitical researcher.
Alihuseyn Gulu-Zada, a geopolitical risk researcher specialising in the South Caucasus and Iran, told AnewZ’s Bakhtiyar Khasanov on Wednesday (29 April) that U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media claims that Tehran was in a “State of Collapse” were exaggerated, though not entirely without basis.
“President Trump’s assessment partly reflects reality but overstates the immediacy and extent of any collapse. Iran is indeed experiencing acute economic stress caused by the naval blockade,” he said.
“Losses from oil exports are estimated at up to $435 million. Storage facilities on Kharg Island are filling rapidly, and supertankers are being reactivated for floating storage, raising the risk of shutdowns,” Gulu-Zada added.
He emphasised that Iran has previously shown significant resilience to sanctions and retains control of internal resources, making collapse improbable in the short to medium term.
On Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday, Gulu-Zada said it was less about advancing mediation efforts, as Oman and Pakistan have attempted, and more about strengthening Russia’s anti-Western bloc.
“In effect, Russia is demonstrating that it has no intention of isolating Iran, aiming to reduce the effectiveness of Western pressure while preserving room for pragmatic contacts with Washington,” he added.
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