Oil prices extended gains on Monday, rising nearly 2% as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight.
Brent crude futures rose $2.16, or 2.05%, to $107.49 a barrel by 2346 GMT, the highest since 7 April, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $96.17 a barrel, up $1.77, or 1.88%.
Last week, Brent and WTI gained nearly 17% and 13%, respectively, the biggest weekly gains since the start of the war.
Hopes of reviving peace efforts receded during the weekend when U.S. President Donald Trump scrapped a planned trip to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, even as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived In Pakistan.
"This move puts the ball squarely back in Iran’s court, and the clock is now ticking loudly," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, adding that Tehran may be forced to shut production at its aging oil fields when it runs out of storage capacity.
Tehran has largely closed the strait while Washington has imposed a blockade of Iran's ports. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, with just one oil products tanker entering the Gulf on Sunday, shipping data from Kpler showed.
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 for WTI citing reduced output from the Middle East.
"The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock," GS analysts led by Daan Struyven said in an 26 April note.
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Overnight Iranian strikes on an air base in Jordan damaged multiple U.S. aircraft and left one without a wing, American media reported. Meanwhile, explosions were heard across parts of southern Iran according to local media reports.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in New Delhi on Friday to attend the weekend BRICS summit, amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, joining a host of foreign dignitaries.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Siberia and a seaport in Dagestan in the past 24 hours, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. He will meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday to discuss air defences for Ukraine over winter.
A Russian strike on a gas station in Kyiv has killed two people, the city's Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a statement on Telegram. In Russia, online marketplace Ozon has suspended operations in Saratov, southwestern Russia, following a drone strike on a warehouse in the region.
Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks drew the U.S. into Afghanistan, the Taliban is seeking a new relationship with Washington built on diplomacy, investment and trade, despite deep divisions between the former enemies.
Saudi Arabia is now facing pressure from both ends of the Arabian Peninsula. While the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting Gulf shipping and energy flows, fighting has intensified in western Yemen, bringing the Houthis back into direct confrontation with the kingdom.
Iran has warned it will retaliate against any future U.S. attacks, saying American energy interests and infrastructure across the Gulf could become targets in a further escalation of the conflict.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday that the United States must recognise that the “rules of the game” in its war against Iran had changed “before it is too late”, a day after Washington struck several Iranian tankers in the Gulf.
An Iranian tanker was hit by U.S. forces on Saturday near Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, in the Gulf, the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim reported.
U.S. efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy through an oil blockade and sanctions are becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to withstand, according to three senior Iranian sources. Washington is escalating pressure in hopes of securing concessions in future negotiations.
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