European logistics companies are set to report stronger first-quarter profits, benefiting from supply chain disruption linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though analysts warn the conflict could weaken demand later this year.
Heightened complexity in global trade routes has historically supported profitability for major logistics groups such as DHL, DSV and Kuehne+Nagel.
However, analysts caution that the longer-term effects of rising energy costs and broader economic uncertainty may dampen volumes.
In a note to clients, analysts at Jefferies said Kuehne+Nagel’s management does not expect further yield pressure in its sea or air freight business in the first quarter, reinforcing expectations that earnings have stabilised and are set to improve.
They added that periods of geopolitical instability have historically driven a “sea-to-air spillover,” where cargo shifts from shipping to air freight - an area where DHL is structurally well positioned.
Air freight volumes are forecast to grow at a high single-digit rate in the first quarter, outpacing sea freight, which is expected to rise only modestly year-on-year, according to analysts at AllianceBernstein.
Sea freight demand has been weighed down by tough comparisons after shippers front-loaded cargo ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs in April 2025.
Investor attention is also turning to DSV’s capital markets day on 12 May, where analysts expect updated medium-term financial targets, with potential for upside surprises.
Following renewed escalation in the Middle East, vessels have increasingly avoided the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy and trade flows.
The disruption has intensified pressure on regional transport networks and driven up air cargo costs as demand rises alongside higher jet fuel prices and tighter capacity. The fallout extends beyond the Gulf, with heightened tensions also reinforcing risks in the Red Sea and delaying expectations for a full resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal route.
Global shipping giants including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope since the outbreak of the conflict, keeping freight rates elevated and boosting margins.
Even in the event of a peace agreement, analysts do not expect freight markets to normalise quickly.
While rates may ease if traffic resumes through Hormuz, any decline is likely to be gradual as supply chains have adapted, congestion has eased, and shippers continue to explore alternative routes. Analysts suggest pre-conflict trade patterns may not fully return.
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Armenia's ruling Civil Contract party is leading in a parliamentary election with 54.44% of the vote, according to early voting results from Armenia's electoral commission that were broadcast on public TV.
A powerful earthquake struck off the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on Monday (8 June), killing at least 3 people and triggering tsunami warnings across the region.
Start your day informed with the AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top stories for the 8 June, covering the latest developments you need to know.
The results of Armenia’s parliamentary elections will determine the makeup of the National Assembly and shape the country's political direction for the foreseeable future. But in Armenia, the final result is not decided by vote percentages alone. Here's how it works.
Counting is underway in Armenia's elections. The results of the vote are set to determine the political direction of the country of three million people for the next few years. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is hoping to fend off challenges from several pro-Russia candidates to secure a third term.
Armenian authorities arrested six candidates from the pro-Russian Strong Armenia bloc on Saturday, one day before voters were due to take part in parliamentary elections.
More than 6,000 people gathered outside a vote-counting centre in Seoul on Friday night, demanding this week’s local elections be repeated after ballot shortages left some voters unable to cast their ballots.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry has confirmed the number of casualties its citizens suffered as a result of the 5 June drone attacks on the cargo ships Natra and Zircon in the Sea of Azov. In a statement, it said four Azerbaijani citizens were killed and four others were injured.
Armenia's ruling Civil Contract party is leading in a parliamentary election with 54.44% of the vote, according to early voting results from Armenia's electoral commission that were broadcast on public TV.
Israel said it struck military targets in western and central Iran on Monday, even after U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from further attacks.
Sirens rang out across multiple areas of Israel on Sunday night after missiles were launched from Iran towards the country, the Israeli military said. Earlier, Tehran's top negotiator in talks with the U.S. threatened to target Israeli and American assets in the region, after Israel struck Beirut.
U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “crazy” during a phone exchange over fighting in Lebanon. The call came as the U.S. was attempting to broker an end to hostilities involving Iran.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Monday they targeted the source of an attack on a telecom facility on Sirik Island near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim News Agency reported.
Iran really wanted to make a deal with the U.S. and that it would be a good one for Washington and its allies, President Donald Trump said on Monday.
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