European logistics companies are set to report stronger first-quarter profits, benefiting from supply chain disruption linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though analysts warn the conflict could weaken demand later this year.
Heightened complexity in global trade routes has historically supported profitability for major logistics groups such as DHL, DSV and Kuehne+Nagel.
However, analysts caution that the longer-term effects of rising energy costs and broader economic uncertainty may dampen volumes.
In a note to clients, analysts at Jefferies said Kuehne+Nagel’s management does not expect further yield pressure in its sea or air freight business in the first quarter, reinforcing expectations that earnings have stabilised and are set to improve.
They added that periods of geopolitical instability have historically driven a “sea-to-air spillover,” where cargo shifts from shipping to air freight - an area where DHL is structurally well positioned.
Air freight volumes are forecast to grow at a high single-digit rate in the first quarter, outpacing sea freight, which is expected to rise only modestly year-on-year, according to analysts at AllianceBernstein.
Sea freight demand has been weighed down by tough comparisons after shippers front-loaded cargo ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs in April 2025.
Investor attention is also turning to DSV’s capital markets day on 12 May, where analysts expect updated medium-term financial targets, with potential for upside surprises.
Following renewed escalation in the Middle East, vessels have increasingly avoided the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy and trade flows.
The disruption has intensified pressure on regional transport networks and driven up air cargo costs as demand rises alongside higher jet fuel prices and tighter capacity. The fallout extends beyond the Gulf, with heightened tensions also reinforcing risks in the Red Sea and delaying expectations for a full resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal route.
Global shipping giants including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope since the outbreak of the conflict, keeping freight rates elevated and boosting margins.
Even in the event of a peace agreement, analysts do not expect freight markets to normalise quickly.
While rates may ease if traffic resumes through Hormuz, any decline is likely to be gradual as supply chains have adapted, congestion has eased, and shippers continue to explore alternative routes. Analysts suggest pre-conflict trade patterns may not fully return.
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Iran said on Sunday (10 May) that it had sent its response to a U.S. proposal aimed at launching peace talks to end the war, as signs of tentative movement emerged around the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed security incidents across the Gulf.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has cited Azerbaijan as an example of what he described as a sovereign foreign policy, recalling remarks made by President Ilham Aliyev during talks in Yerevan, where he sharply criticised resolutions adopted against his country by the European Parliament.
Russia is holding a significantly scaled-back Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May 2026, reflecting heightened security concerns and the ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Centre-right leader Péter Magyar was sworn in as Hungary’s prime minister on Saturday, propelled into office on promises of change after years of economic stagnation and strained ties with key allies under his predecessor Viktor Orbán.
Efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appeared to stall as the two sides exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A reported CIA assessment suggested Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for months despite mounting sanctions and renewed Gulf attacks.
British paratroopers and military medics have been deployed to Tristan da Cunha after a suspected hantavirus case was confirmed, as first evacuation flights carrying passengers from the stricken MV Hondius cruise ship left Tenerife for Madrid and Paris.
Russia is holding a significantly scaled-back Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May 2026, reflecting heightened security concerns and the ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Indonesian rescue teams have located two Singaporeans who went missing after Mount Dukono erupted on Friday (8 May) on the island of Halmahera, though authorities say it remains unclear whether they are alive.
The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified files on unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) on Friday (8 May), following an order from President Donald Trump. U.S. officials described as a push for “unprecedented transparency”.
President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to a US war proposal “totally unacceptable” after Tehran sent its reply through mediator Pakistan, according to IRNA. Qatar’s al-Thani also warned Iran against using the Strait of Hormuz as “a pressure tool”.
Efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appeared to stall as the two sides exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A reported CIA assessment suggested Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for months despite mounting sanctions and renewed Gulf attacks.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz, though both sides signalled they did not want escalation. The clashes come as Washington awaits Tehran’s response to a proposed deal to end the war while leaving key disputes, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, unresolved for now.
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain far from a genuine ceasefire, as military posturing, sanctions and uncertainty over diplomacy continue to fuel fears of a broader regional confrontation.
Iran confirmed on Friday its Armed Forces responded to, what Tehran is calling, the U.S. Navy’s violation of the ceasefire. It said Iranian ships and civilian areas were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening.
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