The head of a body representing global airlines said on Wednesday that even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.
Oil fell below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran that was subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil trade.
Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Willie Walsh, told reporters in Singapore that while he expected crude oil prices to fall, jet fuel costs were likely to remain slightly elevated due to the impact on refineries.
"If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East, which is a critical part of the global supply of refined products, and not just jet fuel for other products as well," Walsh said.
Airlines across Asia have been cutting flights, carrying extra fuel from home airports and adding refuelling stops as the Middle East conflict squeezes jet fuel supply, adding to pressure on an industry already hit by a doubling of jet fuel prices.
The pain has so far been sharpest in lower-income, import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports and South Korea capped them at last year’s levels.
If crude started flowing again then "I would like to think" that China as well as South Korea would restart their exporting of refined products, Walsh said.
"So there is (refining) capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it'll take a little bit of time, and with the crack spread elevated the way it is, I think that provides an incentive for refineries to increase the production of jet fuel," Walsh said.
The crack spread refers to refinery margins.
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The U.S. and Iran say they have reached a deal to end their conflict, with an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Talks will continue over the next 60 days to finalise the agreement
U.S. President Donald Trump has said a peace agreement with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday in a post on social media, despite Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying no deal would be approved this weekend.
U.S. and Iranian officials said they had agreed on a framework to end their war, halt the U.S. blockade of Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a preliminary pact that sent oil prices falling but leaves the fate of Iran's nuclear program to further negotiations.
Details of a reported draft memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran offer the clearest picture yet of how both sides plan to end months of conflict and move towards a longer-term settlement.
The U.S. and Iran say they have reached a deal to end their conflict, with an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Talks will continue over the next 60 days to finalise the agreement
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that a draft memorandum with the U.S. covers issues including Iran’s nuclear programme, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. waivers on oil sanctions, with further negotiations expected within 60 days of an initial agreement.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said a peace agreement with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday in a post on social media, despite Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying no deal would be approved this weekend.
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