The head of a body representing global airlines said on Wednesday that even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.
Oil fell below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran that was subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil trade.
Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Willie Walsh, told reporters in Singapore that while he expected crude oil prices to fall, jet fuel costs were likely to remain slightly elevated due to the impact on refineries.
"If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East, which is a critical part of the global supply of refined products, and not just jet fuel for other products as well," Walsh said.
Airlines across Asia have been cutting flights, carrying extra fuel from home airports and adding refuelling stops as the Middle East conflict squeezes jet fuel supply, adding to pressure on an industry already hit by a doubling of jet fuel prices.
The pain has so far been sharpest in lower-income, import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports and South Korea capped them at last year’s levels.
If crude started flowing again then "I would like to think" that China as well as South Korea would restart their exporting of refined products, Walsh said.
"So there is (refining) capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it'll take a little bit of time, and with the crack spread elevated the way it is, I think that provides an incentive for refineries to increase the production of jet fuel," Walsh said.
The crack spread refers to refinery margins.
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Overnight Iranian strikes on an air base in Jordan damaged multiple U.S. aircraft and left one without a wing, American media reported. Meanwhile, explosions were heard across parts of southern Iran according to local media reports.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in New Delhi on Friday to attend the weekend BRICS summit, amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, joining a host of foreign dignitaries.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Siberia and a seaport in Dagestan in the past 24 hours, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. He will meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday to discuss air defences for Ukraine over winter.
Mexico and the U.S. are racing to secure a trade deal before the U.S. midterm elections in less than eight weeks, according to six sources familiar with the talks, with failed negotiations between Washington and Canada adding urgency.
A Russian strike on a gas station in Kyiv has killed two people, the city's Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a statement on Telegram. In Russia, online marketplace Ozon has suspended operations in Saratov, southwestern Russia, following a drone strike on a warehouse in the region.
Saudi Arabia is now facing pressure from both ends of the Arabian Peninsula. While the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting Gulf shipping and energy flows, fighting has intensified in western Yemen, bringing the Houthis back into direct confrontation with the kingdom.
Iran has warned it will retaliate against any future U.S. attacks, saying American energy interests and infrastructure across the Gulf could become targets in a further escalation of the conflict.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday that the United States must recognise that the “rules of the game” in its war against Iran had changed “before it is too late”, a day after Washington struck several Iranian tankers in the Gulf.
An Iranian tanker was hit by U.S. forces on Saturday near Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, in the Gulf, the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim reported.
U.S. efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy through an oil blockade and sanctions are becoming increasingly difficult for Tehran to withstand, according to three senior Iranian sources. Washington is escalating pressure in hopes of securing concessions in future negotiations.
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